华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the prices of aluminum ingots are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province have different production suspension times, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The prices of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. The winter storage this year was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] For Aluminum Ingots - Geopolitical events in the Middle East may lead to a supply disturbance of millions of tons and increase smelting costs. The volatility of aluminum prices may increase. The follow - up needs to be vigilant against risks such as conflict escalation, strait blockade, and raw material supply interruption [5] - In February, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. Affected by the Spring Festival, the overall downstream industry's start - up rate decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum dropped by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4% [4] - The domestic aluminum processing comprehensive PMI in February was 34.8%, below the boom - bust line. The production, procurement, and new orders of various sub - industries generally declined [4] - On March 2, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 72,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 121,000 tons compared with last Monday. The inventory of aluminum rods in major consumption areas increased by 5,500 tons compared with last Thursday [4]