20260303申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bullish approach towards polyolefins, as the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend led to a rise in international crude oil prices, which in turn boosted the chemical products. The report also mentions that the downstream demand should be monitored for the terminal procurement rhythm after the resumption of work [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7081, 6991, and 7071 respectively, with price increases of 397, 394, and 399, and percentage increases of 5.94%, 5.97%, and 5.98% respectively. The trading volumes were 1244, 963478, and 119036, and the open interests were 1958, 505479, and 90112, with changes of 126, -60599, and -3223 respectively [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6948, 6998, and 7020 respectively, with price increases of 355, 387, and 393, and percentage increases of 5.38%, 5.85%, and 5.93% respectively. The trading volumes were 1431, 888436, and 122800, and the open interests were 3942, 498613, and 133948, with changes of 546, 8140, and 7418 respectively [2]. - Spread: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 90, -80, and -10 respectively. For PP, the spreads were -50, -22, and 72 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2366 yuan/ton, 6620 yuan/ton, 740 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6680 yuan/ton, and 8100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Mid - stream: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6600 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - The retaliatory actions of a Middle Eastern country led to the closure of some oil and gas facilities in the Middle East and the shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The international oil prices soared at the beginning of the session but then retreated from the intraday high. On March 2, 2026, the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for April 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $71.23 per barrel, up $4.21 or 6.28% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.2 - $75.33. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $77.74 per barrel, up $4.87 or 6.68% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $75.75 - $82.37 [2].