2026年03月3日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯：申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although prices have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair is the core disturbance, with short - term uncertainty in the nomination process and policy independence. Macro factors and industry - side fundamentals support the long - term bullish view [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 626.50, 617.95, and 613.10 respectively, with increases of 12.65, 11.25, and 8.15 and corresponding increases of 2.06%, 1.85%, and 1.35%. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 463.65, 459.15, and 454.45 respectively, with increases of 4.60, 3.65, and 0.85 and corresponding increases of 1.00%, 0.80%, and 0.19% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest for platinum futures is 12,625 for all contracts, and trading volumes are 16,977, 336, and 105 respectively. For palladium futures, the open interest is 4,424 for all contracts, and trading volumes are 5,432, 98, and 14 respectively [1] - Spot Premiums: The spot premiums for platinum futures are - 20.15, - 11.6, and - 6.75, and for palladium futures are - 18.65, - 14.15, and - 9.45 [1] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 606.35 yuan/g, 2329.00 US dollars/ounce, 931.00 yuan/g, and 960.00 yuan/g respectively, with changes of - 3.64, - 37.00, 38.00, and 0.00 and corresponding changes of - 0.006%, - 0.016%, 0.043%, and 0.000%. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 445.00 yuan/g and 4448.76 rubles/g respectively, with changes of 5.00 and 53.85 and corresponding changes of 0.011% and 0.012% [1] - Price Ratios: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.36, 1.12, - 8.55, - 13.40, 1.09, and - 4.50 respectively, compared with previous values of - 0.73, 0.42, - 6.95, - 13.10, 1.01, and - 6.35 [1] Inventory - Platinum: The current NYMEX inventory is 588,065.94 ounces, an increase of 10,330.4 ounces from the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 313,567.94 ounces. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's trading volume is 86.00 kilograms, an increase of 24.00 kilograms, and the trading value is 52.76 million yuan, an increase of 15.80 million yuan [1] - Palladium: The current NYMEX inventory is 202,180.58 ounces, an increase of 15,912.00 ounces from the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts also increase by 15,912.00 ounces to 164,229.68 ounces [1] Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators - Macroeconomic Indicators: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.55, 6,881.62, 4.05, 22,748.86, 48,904.78, and 6.92 respectively, with changes of 0.90, 2.74, 0.08, 80.65, - 73.14, and 0.00 compared with the previous values [1] - Related Derivatives: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1,197.22, 1,200.60, and 1,203.80 respectively, with increases of 49.32, 49.26, and 49.52. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 24,431.00, 24,061.00, and 23,984.00 respectively, with increases of 1,412, 1,286, and 1,248 [1] Macroeconomic News - Geopolitical: The military strike by the US and Israel against Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed Personnel: US President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination faces opposition in the Senate. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but less than expected, and the process and policy independence are uncertain [2][4] - Monetary Policy: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's nominee Milan [2] - China's Central Bank: The People's Bank of China has held a payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]