申万期货品种策略日报-生猪（LH）-20260303

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market situation of the pig industry is characterized by a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The average ex - factory price of live pigs has declined, the losses of the breeding end have expanded, and it is expected that the pig price will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms, slaughterhouse warehousing, and the consumption drive during the back - to - school season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts for January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13380, 10100, 11220, 12350, 13300, and 13255 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by - 125 (- 0.93%), - 530 (- 4.99%), - 265 (- 2.31%), - 160 (- 1.28%), - 195 (- 1.44%), and - 210 (- 1.56%) respectively [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes were 1364, 607, 97976, 15819, 14589, and 5911 respectively, and the open interests were 5248, 257, 165149, 54556, 46630, and 28685 respectively. The changes in open interest were 68, - 556, 9894, - 97, 858, and 1022 respectively [2]. - Price Spreads: The current price spreads of 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 month were 3280, - 1120, - 1130, - 950, 45, and - 125 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2875, - 855, - 1025, - 985, 30, and - 40 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 10.79, 10.27, 10.59, 11.23, 10.57, and 10.16 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they decreased by - 0.34, - 21.03, - 0.19, - 0.02, - 0.2, and - 0.41 respectively [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts was 1156 on the previous day, with no change compared with two days ago [2]. Market Situation and Outlook - Industry Data: The national average ex - factory price of live pigs was 10.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/kg compared with the previous day. The lowest price was 9.88 yuan/kg in Heilongjiang, and the highest price was 11.28 yuan/kg in Guangdong. The price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.83 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume of the breeding end increased by 5.64% month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight remained stable. The slaughter rate of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased by 1.40% month - on - month. The daily losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding expanded to 185.14 yuan/head and 108.71 yuan/head respectively [3]. - Outlook: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market remains unchanged. The return of people in the south has limited support, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened. It is expected that the pig price will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms, slaughterhouse warehousing, and the consumption drive during the back - to - school season [3].