2026/8/3星期二：申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The panic caused by geopolitical factors has eased. The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 closing in the green. The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven", and the performance - supported sectors will have sustainable opportunities. In the short term, the risk appetite has declined due to geopolitical disturbances, but in the long term, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts on the previous day were 4711.20 (current month), 4702.60 (next month), 4665.20 (next quarter), and 4601.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of 3.20, 0.80, - 3.00, and - 7.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 83457.00, 5407.00, 28338.00, and 11606.00, and the open interest changes were 3800.00, 1857.00, 5225.00, and 2166.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH contracts on the previous day were 3045.80 (current month), 3043.80 (next month), 3038.40 (next quarter), and 3003.20 (next - next quarter), with changes of 2.40, - 0.60, - 0.40, and - 0.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 41055.00, 2482.00, 12318.00, and 5279.00, and the open interest changes were 2029.00, 409.00, 2096.00, and 209.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC contracts on the previous day were 8627.00 (current month), 8603.00 (next month), 8502.00 (next quarter), and 8351.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of - 6.00, - 7.20, - 10.00, and - 18.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 105223.00, 8423.00, 48791.00, and 16369.00, and the open interest changes were 4071.00, 2545.00, 3496.00, and 1914.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM contracts on the previous day were 8423.80 (current month), 8380.20 (next month), 8230.60 (next quarter), and 8029.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of - 97.80, - 95.20, - 94.00, and - 94.20 respectively. The trading volumes were 142245.00, 8915.00, 52969.00, and 21847.00, and the open interest changes were 3839.00, 3449.00, 6522.00, and 3851.00 [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 8.60, - 2.00, - 24.00, and - 43.60 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 7.40, 1.60, - 25.20, and - 45.20 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.38%, the Shanghai 50 index increased by 0.23%, the CSI 500 index remained unchanged, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.98% [1]. - Industry Performance: The energy, raw materials, industrial, and telecommunications sectors had positive growth rates of 7.78%, 2.91%, 0.64%, and 2.32% respectively, while the main consumption, pharmaceutical, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had negative growth rates of - 1.00%, - 1.98%, - 0.30%, and - 1.36% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Basis: The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index on the previous day was - 17.47, - 26.07, - 63.47, and - 127.67 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 3.15, - 4.25, - 37.25, and - 96.05 [1]. - IH Basis: The basis of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the Shanghai 50 index on the previous day was - 0.67, - 2.67, - 8.07, and - 43.27 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 5.97, 7.57, 1.57, and - 34.43 [1]. - IC Basis: The basis of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the CSI 500 index on the previous day was - 31.33, - 55.33, - 156.33, and - 307.33 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 13.05, - 38.25, - 133.25, and - 282.25 [1]. - IM Basis: The basis of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the CSI 1000 index on the previous day was - 53.17, - 96.77, - 246.37, and - 447.97 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 29.44, - 74.64, - 230.24, and - 431.44 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.20%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.49% [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 2.14%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.04%, and the DAX Index decreased by 2.42% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - Diplomatic Statements: China urges all parties to stop military actions in the Middle East. The report about China - Iran missile procurement is untrue. There is no information about Trump's visit to China [2]. - US - Iran Situation: The US continues military operations in Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks. Iran refuses to negotiate with the US [2]. - US Tariff Issue: Over $175 billion of illegal tariffs will enter the refund process [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Tourism: The China Travel Service Association calls for ensuring the safety of tourists in the Middle East [2]. - Aviation: The ticket prices of China - Europe routes have soared due to flight cancellations [2]. - Phosphorus Fertilizer: Industry associations call for stabilizing the phosphorus fertilizer market [2]. - Smartphones: Mobile phone prices are expected to rise due to increased chip costs [2].