铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran continues to ferment, leading to a significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which has a wide - ranging impact on the global financial and commodity markets. The market's risk - aversion sentiment is high, and the expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts are adjusted. Different commodities show different trends under the influence of geopolitical factors and their own fundamentals [2][4][6]. According to the Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is intensifying, with continuous air strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Iran threatens to attack passing ships. The US manufacturing industry in February continued to expand, but inflationary pressures are rising, and the market's expectations for interest - rate cuts have converged. The US stock market opened lower and closed higher, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.04%, the US dollar index rose to 98.5, oil prices rose by more than 6%, gold prices reached above $5400 and then fell, and copper prices fell by 2% [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4182 points, approaching the previous high. Funds flowed into the dividend - paying sectors, and the technology sector performed weakly. The trading volume in the two markets reached 3.05 trillion yuan, a new high since February, and more than 4200 stocks closed down. The short - term upward momentum of the index still exists, and the focus will shift to the economic performance at the beginning of the year and the economic targets and policies of the Two Sessions in early March [3]. Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased, driving gold prices to break through the $5400 mark, but then some funds took profits, and gold prices corrected. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.68% at $5335.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures closed down 3.95% at $89.61 per ounce. It is expected that the short - term gold - silver ratio will continue to correct upwards [4][5]. Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in June has declined, and copper prices have adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper weakened, and LME copper adjusted to around $13000. The spot market trading was light, and the inventory increased. Geopolitical factors and inflation concerns led to a reduction in the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The supply of mines was tight, and the inventory accumulation rate in China slowed down. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices continued to be strong with increased volatility. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24465 yuan/ton, up 3.21%. The geopolitical conflict led to an increase in energy costs and inflation expectations, and concerns about the normal production of Iranian aluminum plants supported aluminum prices. However, the inventory in China continued to accumulate, and the downstream consumption recovered slowly [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices fluctuated widely. The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The long - term closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of alumina supply in the Middle East and disrupt the overseas supply - demand balance. The domestic alumina price rose due to regional supply imbalance, and the market was in a state of long - short game [10]. Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum prices were strong. The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 23180 yuan/ton, up 2.66%. Geopolitical factors drove up aluminum prices, and the cost of scrap aluminum increased. The supply capacity recovered after the festival, and the market supply - demand was temporarily balanced, with prices mainly driven by cost and emergencies [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc was supported by geopolitical premiums and was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly during the day and then gave back the gains at night. The European natural gas price soared, increasing the cost of zinc smelters in Europe. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream resumed work slowly. The short - term trend of zinc prices was driven by the geopolitical situation [12][13]. Lead - The lead price center moved up. The main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated with an upward center during the day and traded sideways at night. The supply and demand of lead both increased, and the social inventory showed an inflection point. The lead price was expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside space was limited [14]. Tin - Tin prices were consolidating at a high level. The main contract of Shanghai tin rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day and weakened at night. The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar was expected to accelerate, which alleviated the supply concerns. However, tin has strong strategic attributes, and the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable, limiting the adjustment space of tin prices [15][16]. Steel and Iron - Screw and Coil: Steel futures fluctuated. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on the black market was limited. During the Two Sessions, the supply was low, and the post - festival construction industry had tight funds. The inventory continued to accumulate, and it was expected that the steel price would fluctuate and stabilize [17][18]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore futures fluctuated. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the arrival decreased. The inventory pressure was still large, and the demand recovery was limited. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate and stabilize [19]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coal increased, and the downstream demand was limited. The coking enterprises' inventory accumulated, and it was expected that the coking coal and coke prices would fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the improvement of steel mill profits and policy support [20]. Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The funds reduced their positions, and the soybean meal futures fluctuated and fell. Market institutions slightly lowered the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, and the domestic soybean inventory increased while the soybean meal inventory decreased. It was expected that the soybean meal futures would fluctuate in the short term [21][22]. - Palm Oil: Palm oil prices fluctuated and rose. The geopolitical conflict led to a sharp rise in oil prices, which boosted the oil market. The high - frequency data showed that the supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the domestic palm oil inventory increased. It was expected that the palm oil price would fluctuate [23][24].