华宝期货碳酸锂晨报-20260303

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of tight supply - demand balance and conduct range - bound consolidation [2][4]. 3. Summary by Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract opened higher, then oscillated and declined, and finally stabilized at 172,020 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the net long - short ratio decreased slightly. The inventory on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 265 lots to 38,461 lots [2]. - On the spot side, the average price of SMM electric carbon was 172,500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remained at 3,500 yuan/ton. Downstream replenishment demand was rigid, and procurement willingness improved. However, the upstream was reluctant to sell and tried to support prices. Market inquiries and actual transactions were still relatively light, and the spot sentiment was cautious [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared with February 13. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase from February 12), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (an increase of 1,638 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3]. - Demand: There was a differentiation in demand. Last week, lithium - iron phosphate production and inventory increased, while ternary production decreased and inventory was reduced. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In February, the output of NBS lithium - ion batteries was 169.01GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month decrease. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, maintaining an overall tight - balance pattern [3]. Macro - policy Analysis - Domestic policies: Subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold, eliminate backward production capacity, and optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "14th - 15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - Macro - environment: The central bank's structural interest - rate cut strengthens the medium - and long - term positive atmosphere [4]. - International situation: On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal. The White House's 15% temporary tariff policy improves the marginal profit of exports and is beneficial to demand within the window period [4].