流动性和机构行为周度观察：3月资金面预计相对宽松，但需关注银行资负情况-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in March 2026 is expected to be relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the asset - liability situation of banks. Factors such as high maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit, possible "rushing for volume" of bank credit at the end of the quarter, demand for improving liquidity regulatory indicators, impact of foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus on bank asset - liability behavior, and potential regulatory control over bank inter - bank liability behavior need to be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funding Situation - Central Bank Operations: From February 24 - 28, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 61.14 billion yuan, and the treasury time deposit matured at 15 billion yuan. On February 25, the central bank's medium - term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 30 billion yuan. From March 2 - 6, 2026, 152.5 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature. In March, the maturity amounts of 3M and 6M repurchase agreements are 100 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan respectively, and the MLF maturity amount is 45 billion yuan [2][6]. - Funding Rates: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.43% respectively, up 3.9 and 2.4 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.51% and 1.57% respectively, down 1.1 and 1.0 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026 [6]. - Government Bond Net Financing: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the government bond net financing was about 19.036 billion yuan, 52.33 billion yuan less than that from February 9 - 15, 2026. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the government bond net financing is expected to be about 21.2 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds at about - 10.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds at about 31.7 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Yield: As of February 27, 2026, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.4891% and 1.5550% respectively, down 6.6 basis points and basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026. The 1Y yield was 1.5775%, basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026 [8]. - Net Financing: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 212.4 billion yuan. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the maturity repayment amount is expected to be 58.8 billion yuan, with a slightly lower maturity renewal pressure. The maturity scale in March is about 3.59 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.64 trillion yuan year - on - year and about 1.73 trillion yuan month - on - month [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - Bond Market Leverage: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, slightly lower than the average of 107.79% from February 9 - 14, 2026 [9]. - Pure Bond Fund Duration: On February 27, 2026, the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, up 0.07 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 2.06 years, up 0.40 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].