Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹：【资产配置快评】2026年第9期-20260303

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz decreased from 229 to 180, a drop of 49 vessels, while the Panama Canal saw an increase from 53 to 93 vessels, up by 40 vessels, and the Suez Canal increased from 72 to 100 vessels, up by 28 vessels[6] - As of March 2, the 12-month Brent crude oil contango reached $12, exceeding the historical average by one standard deviation, marking the highest level since September 2023[7] - Speculative short positions in Brent crude futures were 23,000 contracts, while WTI crude futures had net long positions of 173,000 contracts, indicating a higher risk of a short squeeze in Brent compared to WTI[11] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have widened the price spread between regional benchmark crude and natural gas, with the Brent-WTI spread reaching $6.9, the highest since February 2023, and the Asian and US natural gas futures spread reaching $14.6, also a peak since February 2025[14] - The price of Brent near-month contracts rose over 6.5% compared to the previous Friday, while the far-month contracts increased by approximately 3%[17] Group 3: Financial Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.1% as of February 27, below the historical average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[18] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 32 basis points, 62 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 29.1 as of February 27, above the 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[29]