豆一冲高回落，豆粕短期反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Douyi 2605 reached a new high after the Spring Festival and then pulled back. The spot price continued to rise, and the basis strengthened. The main contract of Doupo 2605 rebounded after the Spring Festival. The spot price of Doupo declined, and the basis weakened [4]. - High - priced domestic soybeans have sluggish sales, and Douyi may adjust at a high level. There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. South American soybeans will be on the market with price advantages. Domestic port soybean inventories are rising, and there is no auction for now. The oil mill's startup rate has not recovered, and Doupo inventories continue to decline, so Doupo will have a phased rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The main contract of Douyi 2605 reached a high of 4794 after the Spring Festival and then pulled back. The spot price of rich - brocade soybeans rose from 4440 yuan/ton to around 4560 yuan/ton. The basis of Douyi strengthened, and the futures price was at a premium. The main contract of Doupo 2605 rebounded after the Spring Festival. The spot price of Zhangjiagang 43 - protein Doupo fell from 3060 yuan/ton to around 3010 yuan/ton. The basis of Doupo weakened, and the futures price discount decreased [4]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean Situation - As of February 27, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang was 39%, in Anhui was 45%, in Henan was 49%, and in Shandong was 50%, all remaining unchanged from the previous week. High - priced soybeans have sluggish sales, and the remaining grain in the whole country is much higher than the same period last year. There is no state - reserve soybean auction for now [4]. 3.3 Import and Supply Situation - There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. The US Supreme Court ruled that special tariffs are illegal, and the US has counter - imposed a 15% global tariff. There is high uncertainty in trade negotiations as the US may visit China at the end of March to early April. Currently, the cost of US soybeans is not competitive compared to South American soybeans, and Brazilian soybeans are on the market. There is no import soybean auction recently. The arrival of soybeans at oil mills is gradually recovering, and port soybean inventories have stopped falling and started to rise. As of February 27, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.339 million tons, and port soybean inventories were 6.3 million tons, both rising from the previous week [4]. 3.4 US Soybean Situation - The US Agricultural Outlook Forum expects the new - season planting area of US soybeans to increase to 85 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%). The conflict between the US and Iran has affected agricultural products due to the strong crude oil market. The strong US soybean oil has boosted US soybeans, and the rising fertilizer prices may increase planting costs and be transmitted to agricultural products [5]. 3.5 Oil Mill Situation - As of February 27, the startup rate of oil mills was 16.19%, rising from the previous week but still not fully recovered. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5.967 million tons, rising from the previous week. The output of Doupo was 465,000 tons; the Doupo inventory of oil mills was 701,200 tons, continuing to decline from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts of Doupo were 2.9152 million tons, also continuing to decline. The inventory days of Doupo in feed mills were 9.89 days, down from the pre - Spring Festival high [5]. 3.6 Feed Demand Situation - In the breeding industry, the pig price is low, and breeding may fall into full - scale losses again. As of February 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan per head, close to losses; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 159.65 yuan per head, with losses increasing. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, continuing to decrease; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, with a year - on - year increase of only 0.5% and a month - on - month decrease for the first time in recent years. In January, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, and the culling rate decreased significantly; the output of piglets increased, but the sales volume decreased; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased again month - on - month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has fallen, and breeding has suffered losses again. In January, the sales volume of chicken chicks continued to increase, and the culling of old chickens remained at a high level. In January, the inventory of laying hens decreased again month - on - month but was still at a high level. Due to losses, breeding enterprises may be cautious about restocking again. The current high inventory still supports feed demand, but losses may lead to further capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [6]. 3.7 Market Outlook - High - priced domestic soybeans have sluggish sales, and can be supplemented through auctions and imports, so Douyi may adjust at a high level. There are doubts about China's subsequent purchase of US soybeans. South American soybeans will be on the market with price advantages. Domestic port soybean inventories are rising, there is no auction for now, the oil mill's startup rate has not recovered, and Doupo inventories continue to decline. Doupo will have a phased rebound [6].