环保行业跟踪周报：SAF扩产+能源价值中枢上行，持续关注UCO端山高、朗坤，重视矿业双碳-20260303

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The expansion of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and the upward trend in energy value center are driving the scarcity and value appreciation of waste oil resources [10][11] - The proposed acquisition of 10.61% stake by Conch Group in Conch Venture is expected to enhance control and lead to a revaluation of equity [14][15] - The environmental protection strategy for 2026 emphasizes value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals [19] - The sales of new energy sanitation vehicles are projected to increase by 70.9% in 2025, with penetration rate rising by 7.67 percentage points to 21.11% [24] - The price of bio-jet fuel has slightly increased, while prices for kitchen waste oil and waste cooking oil remain stable [35][36] - The prices of lithium and carbonate lithium have risen, but profitability has decreased in the lithium recycling sector [44][45] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - SAF production is expected to face supply constraints, with demand projected to reach 1.05 million tons by 2025 and 3.662 million tons by 2050 [10] - The current supply of waste cooking oil (UCO) is limited, with a potential utilization of about 4 million tons per year in China [10] - The price of UCO is currently at 7400 RMB/ton, with potential for significant price elasticity as SAF production expands [11] Company Tracking - Conch Group's acquisition of a 10.61% stake in Conch Venture aims to strengthen control and enhance the value of the equity [15][18] - Conch Venture's market capitalization is estimated at 23.5 billion HKD, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.44 [18] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in free cash flow due to improved operational efficiency and reduced capital expenditures [17] Environmental Equipment - The sanitation equipment sector is experiencing a surge in demand, with a 150% increase in unmanned sanitation project bids and a 71% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles [24] - The market share of leading companies in the sanitation vehicle sector includes Yingfeng Environment, which holds the largest market share [31] Biofuels - Bio-jet fuel prices have seen a slight increase, with European prices rising by 100 USD/ton, while domestic prices remain stable [35] - The profitability of biofuels is influenced by the prices of raw materials, with UCO prices remaining stable [36] Lithium Recycling - The prices of lithium and cobalt have increased, but the profitability in the lithium recycling sector has decreased, with average unit gross profit for lithium carbonate at -0.70 million RMB/ton [44][45]