生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, the supply of white sugar is relatively sufficient, but the fundamentals are expected to improve, and Zhengzhou sugar may bottom out and rebound. For pulp, the improvement of supply - demand for bleached softwood pulp is limited, and the upside potential is cautiously viewed. For double - offset paper, it is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and the rebound space is limited. For cotton, affected by geopolitical conflicts, the futures price is expected to enter a shock consolidation phase. For the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to remain oscillating strongly in a high - level range, and jujube prices may bottom - out and then fluctuate in a narrow range [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy Recommendations - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The supply - side support remains, but the continuous driving force is slightly insufficient. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - Soft Commodity Futures Strategy Recommendations - White Sugar 2605: Hold long positions. The sugar production in India and Thailand is lower than expected, and the price of foreign sugar has risen. The domestic southern sugar mills are starting to reduce production, and the fundamentals are gradually improving. The support range is 5230 - 5250, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5550 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The increase in the overseas price of hardwood pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement of the supply - demand for bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [19]. - Double - Offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The long - term bullish expectations remain, and the medium - term support has not changed. However, the upward trend of the foreign price has not been confirmed, and the domestic - foreign price difference restricts the domestic price. In the short term, the futures price may continue to oscillate strongly. The support range is 14000 - 14200, and the pressure range is 15800 - 16000 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,800 tons. As of February 26, 2026, it was 4.9448 million tons, a decrease of 370,300 tons compared with before the Spring Festival and a year - on - year decrease of 308,900 tons [20]. - Spot Market: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage is stable, and there are some transactions. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, the number of merchants has increased, and they mainly purchase high - quality goods. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is normal, the sales are flat, and the price is stable [20][21][22]. - Jujube Market: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. The inventory of sample points has decreased month - on - month [23]. - White Sugar Market: As of February 28, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 260.896 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.119 million tons; cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.625 million tons; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a year - on - year increase of 0.13%. The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption is expected to be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus is expected to be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast. As of the week of February 24, the total position of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,203,496 contracts, a decrease of 43,866 contracts from the previous week. The speculative long position was 182,794 contracts, an increase of 3664 contracts from the previous week; the speculative short position was 440,657 contracts, a decrease of 4297 contracts from the previous week; the speculative net short position was 257,863 contracts, a decrease of 7961 contracts from the previous week. As of now, 2 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - crushing season, 42 less than the same period last year; the sugar - crushing capacity is 10,000 tons per day, 365,500 tons per day less than the same period last year [25]. - Pulp Market: Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The prices of imported NBSK spot and resale BSK have declined. The prices of NBSK produced in Canada and Northern Europe remain stable at $690 - 700 per ton and $680 - 690 per ton respectively, and the median price of NBSK remains at $690 per ton [27]. - Double - Offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [28]. - Cotton Market: In January 2026, Japan's clothing imports rebounded month - on - month. The import value was 324.278 billion yen (equivalent to $1.78 billion), a year - on - year decrease of 6.33% and a month - on - month increase of 16.45%. In December 2026, the clothing import volume was 80,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.99% and a month - on - month increase of 10.01%. In January, Argentina exported 7409 tons of cotton, a significant increase compared with the same period last year (1737 tons) and a 29.1% decrease compared with the previous month (10,000 tons). As of March 1, 2026, 1099 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, with an inspection quantity of 33,138,040 bales and an inspection weight of 7.4803 million tons [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9896 | 136 | 1.39% | | Jujube 2605 | 8840 | 55 | 0.63% | | White Sugar 2605 | 5345 | 21 | 0.39% | | Pulp 2605 | 5252 | 6 | 0.11% | | Cotton 2605 | 15225 | - 170 | - 1.10% | [30] - Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | White Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5350 | 0 | - 700 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5300 | - 30 | - 1280 | | Double - Offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 700 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16633 | 2 | 1686 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1278 | - 31 | 1920 | Oscillating strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 270 | 5 | 140 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait - and - see | | White Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 8 | 3 | - 140 | Oscillating | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 80 | - 80 | 95 | Oscillating weakly | Short on rallies | [55] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation - Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3869 | 0 | - 816 | | White Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 10003 | | Pulp | 153011 | 0 | - 203702 | | Cotton | 11327 | 155 | 4077 | [87] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data - Apple Option Data: Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content - White Sugar Option Data: Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content - Cotton Option Data: Not summarized in detail as only figures are provided in the content