中东局势持续升级，能源价格上行风险依然较高

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The attack on energy infrastructure will have an unprecedented impact on the oil and gas market. The current Middle - East conflict is a stress - test for countries' energy vulnerability. Crude oil, refined oil, and natural gas prices still face high upside risks, and the development of the Middle - East situation needs close monitoring [2]. 3. Summary of Related Contents Market News and Key Data - As of the close on the 2nd, the price of light - sweet crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.21 to $71.23 per barrel, a 6.28% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $4.87 to $77.74 per barrel, a 6.68% increase [1]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would take measures to ease the energy price increase caused by the oil price surge due to the Iran conflict. US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce relevant plans on Tuesday [1]. - Trump stated that the war will not stop until the goal is reached, and does not rule out sending US ground troops to Iran "if necessary". The "big wave" of the strike on Iran has not started, and the action may last four to five weeks. Iran said it will not negotiate with the US, and the time to cease the war is decided by Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and it will strike all ships trying to pass through. After a Qatari company was attacked, the world's largest LNG export plant suspended production, causing European natural gas futures to soar more than 50% during trading. The largest refinery in Saudi Arabia was attacked by drones and shut down, causing European diesel futures to rise more than 20% during trading [1]. - Qatar shut down the production of the world's largest liquefied natural gas export facility after it was attacked by Iranian drones. This led to a surge in European natural gas prices, with an increase of up to 54%. The Ras Laffan plant of Qatar Energy accounts for about one - fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas supply, and this unprecedented shutdown threatens energy security and disrupts global markets [1]. Investment Logic After the passage of the Strait of Hormuz was significantly blocked over the weekend, the Middle - East situation escalated again on Monday. Iran began to attack the energy infrastructure of neighboring countries. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for more than 10 days or the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are bombed, an actual energy crisis will occur. Overseas refined oil and natural gas markets are more vulnerable. The interruption of Qatar's LNG export will cause a real supply interruption, and the reduction of Middle - East refined oil exports is difficult to fill by other supply sources [2]. Strategy With the continuous escalation of the Middle - East conflict, oil prices will face significant upside risks in the short term. The downside risks are the legalization of sanctioned oil and the mitigation of the Middle - East conflict. The upside risks are the longer - than - expected closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continuous attacks on Middle - East energy infrastructure [3]