MSC再度尝试提高3月下半月价格，关注马士基3月下半月第

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MSC is attempting to raise prices in the second half of March, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening price in the first week of the second half of March [1][6]. - For the relatively peak - season contracts of June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts may have relatively strong short - term trends due to factors such as the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade [8]. - The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery. Investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly, considering the profit - loss ratio [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of March 2, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 85,022.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 117,432.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 at 1429.20, EC2605 at 1637.40, EC2606 at 1885.10, EC2607 at 2094.20, EC2608 at 1980.40, EC2609 at 1497.50, EC2610 at 1342.90, and EC2512 at 1666.50 [9]. II. Spot Prices - On February 27, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1420 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1857 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2691 US dollars/FEU. On March 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1463.40 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1045.08 points [9]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 6 ships with a total of 86,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in March was 268,600 TEU, with the capacities in weeks 10/11/12/13/14 being 149,100/309,200/289,500/262,400/333,000 TEU respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity was 287,900 TEU, with the capacities in weeks 15/16/17/18 being 299,300/314,500/299,400/238,500 TEU respectively. There were 11 blank sailings in March (4 by the OA alliance, 1 by the Gemini alliance, and 6 by the MSC/PA alliance), and 3 TBNs in April [5]. IV. Supply Chain - There was an explosion in the diplomatic area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and explosions were also heard near the US embassy [4]. V. Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10% [8]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None for now. - Arbitrage: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610; go long on EC2607 and short on EC2610 [10].