中东危机引发海外供应担忧

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East is the main driving factor for market fluctuations. Although the probability of a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is low, actual shipping may be hindered, and concerns about an energy crisis have resurfaced. In the long term, with macro - interest rate cuts and strong overseas consumption, a strategy of buying on dips for hedging is still maintained. However, due to the slow recovery of domestic consumption and the rapid inventory accumulation cycle, the premium caused by geopolitical factors may be reversed later [6]. - For alumina, although the sea - freight of bauxite is currently stable, the Middle East crisis has raised concerns about rising freight. The supply surplus pressure has been alleviated due to production cuts by northern alumina plants, and the spot market price shows an upward trend, but the acceptance of price increases by electrolytic aluminum plants is poor. The pressure on warehouse receipt inventory is difficult to relieve, and the short - term downward space of the spot market is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 210 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 290 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the aluminum spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On March 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,815 yuan/ton, closed at 24,465 yuan/ton, with a change of 760 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 483,091 lots, and the holding volume was 277,833 lots [2]. Inventory - As of March 2, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.229 million tons, with a change of 72,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 294,788 tons, with a change of 5,490 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 463,550 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 2, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,630 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,590 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,745 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 2, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,746 yuan/ton, closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, with a change of 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 0.58%. The highest price reached 2,782 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,740 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 365,789 lots, and the holding volume was 344,019 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 2, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,500 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 94,800 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,631 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 569 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy. - Arbitrage: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [8]