关注海外矿端供应扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core View - The Middle East crisis has raised concerns about overseas mine transportation and Iranian zinc ore supply, exacerbating the mine supply problem. The high price of by - products has narrowed the comprehensive smelting loss, and smelters' enthusiasm remains high with a rigid demand for ore and an expected increase. The low TC at the mine end supports zinc prices. In the domestic market, the post - holiday spot market needs time to recover, and transactions are still weak. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation is similar to previous years, and attention should be paid to the later destocking rhythm. There is an optimistic long - term expectation for the macro and actual consumption, and opportunities for buying and hedging at low prices should be sought [5] Summary by Related Catalog Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$18.34/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 24,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of -80 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 24,320 yuan/ton, with a premium of -130 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 24,350 yuan/ton, with a premium of -70 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On March 2, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,540 yuan/ton and closed at 24,850 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 186,884 lots, and the open interest was 95,630 lots. The highest price was 24,880 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,405 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of March 2, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven SMM regions was 254,600 tons, a change of 34,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 96,775 tons, a change of -575 tons from the previous trading day [4]