现货成交仍偏寡淡，铅价维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead first decline and then rise, but the resumption of production is slow, and the secondary lead is deeply in a loss pattern. The terminal consumption gradually recovers after the seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. The domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.63/ton. The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 16,575 yuan/ton. The spot premium of SMM Shanghai lead remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan lead was 16,575 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of SMM Tianjin lead increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged from the previous trading day at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,805 yuan/ton and closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 60,587 lots, an increase of 11,518 lots from the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 63,962 lots, an increase of 118 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,930 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,755 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,945 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 2, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the same period last week. As of March 2, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral view. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid - to late March and the resumption progress of secondary lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on - demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish, paying attention to the breakthrough situation in the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton. Enterprises with different hedging needs for buying or selling can conduct buying or selling hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3]