关注储能需求端边际变化，碳酸锂盘面高位宽度震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent rise in lithium carbonate prices is mainly affected by the fermentation of the lithium mine incident in Zimbabwe, coupled with the accelerated destocking of downstream products, and the sentiment in the futures market has strengthened. The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating at a high level. However, the impact of the unexpected event on supply and demand remains to be observed. There is a certain uncertainty in the realization of demand from subsequent energy storage projects. Currently, there is a large divergence between bulls and bears, and volatility has increased. It is recommended to adopt a cautious and short - term approach, buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 2, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 178,680 yuan/ton and closed at 172,020 yuan/ton, with a - 0.96% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume on that day was 227,061 lots, and the open interest was 378,336 lots, compared with 381,552 lots in the previous trading day. According to SMM spot quotes, the current basis is 1,440 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day was 38,196 lots, a change of - 265 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 169,000 - 176,000 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 166,000 - 172,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,385 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - In December 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were approximately 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The import volume of spodumene in December 2025 was approximately 766,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 19% [2]. - In December 2025, the import volume from Australia was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 27%, accounting for 40%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was 132,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 20%, accounting for 17%. The import volume from Nigeria was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59% and a month - on - month decrease of 13%, accounting for 10%. The import volume from South Africa was 109,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of approximately 109,000 tons [2]. - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 100,093 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,839 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,462 tons; the downstream inventory is 40,021 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,471 tons; other inventories are 41,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170 tons. The downstream inventory has decreased, while the smelter and other inventories have increased. The overall destocking pattern was maintained in February, and the downstream destocking accelerated [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a cautious and short - term approach, buying on dips [3]. Other Information - There is no information on inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].