持续反弹驱动不足，板块整体承压运行

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the USDA outlook indicates a tightening supply - demand pattern in the 2026/27 global cotton market, with production decreasing by 3.2% to 2526 million tons, consumption increasing by 1.2% to 2615 million tons, and ending stocks decreasing by 5.2% to 1550 million tons. In China, the textile market is gradually resuming after the holiday, and in the medium - long term, the cotton price center may rise due to factors like potential inventory tightening and reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in an oversupply situation in the short - medium term, although there are potential long - term supply - side benefits. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, but import policy tightening may support the market [5] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure will likely ease in 2026, but domestic port inventories remain high due to weak terminal demand. However, the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [8] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Cotton - The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15225 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton (-1.10%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16485 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1260; the national average price was 16633 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1408. From February 20 to 26, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 1.12 million tons, and 71.2% of lint met ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] Sugar - The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5345 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.39%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 5, down 21 from the previous day. In Kunming, Yunnan, the spot price was 5200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 145, down 16 from the previous day. As of February 28, 2025/26, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing was 260.896 million tons, an increase of 22.119 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.625 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, up 0.13% year - on - year [4] Pulp - The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5252 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5290 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 38. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4900 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 352. The import wood pulp spot market prices showed a weakening trend, with some prices of different pulp types in various regions falling [7] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the USDA outlook is positive, and the new - season global cotton supply - demand pattern may tighten, pushing up the outer - market price. Domestically, the textile market is resuming after the holiday. In the medium - long term, due to factors like expanded downstream spindle capacity and potential reduced planting area in Xinjiang, the cotton price center may rise [2] Sugar - The Indian sugar production estimate has been revised down, but the 2025/26 global sugar market remains in an oversupply situation in the short - medium term, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, but import policy tightening may support the market [5] Pulp - The global wood pulp supply pressure will likely ease in 2026, and if the consumption in Europe and the US improves, the pressure on China's imports may be relieved. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is weak, resulting in high port inventories. However, the overall demand is expected to improve in 2026 [8] Group 5: Strategies Cotton - In the short term, the market is optimistic about the post - holiday market, but the short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference. Focus on the reduction of new - season planting area and the release of target price subsidy policies [3] Sugar - Although the fundamental driving force is downward, the overall downward space of sugar price is limited. In the short - medium term, sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Focus on changes in China's import policy [6] Pulp - The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and port inventories are still high. In the short term, the pulp price may fluctuate at a low level [9]