油价上涨助推成本上升，聚烯烃价格大幅上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, providing strong cost support for polyolefins and causing a sharp rise in olefin prices. The PE market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but short - term geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices. For PP, the impact on overseas supply is small, and the cost - push is the main factor. The deepening loss of PDH profit may lead to a continuation of the PDH maintenance peak, and the expected reduction in supply provides support for PP prices. Attention should be paid to the actual demand after the resumption of work in the PE mulch film peak season and the follow - up of downstream demand for PP [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6991 yuan/ton (+394), and that of the PP main contract is 6998 yuan/ton (+387). LL North China spot is 6650 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (+250), and PP East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (+70). LL North China basis is - 341 yuan/ton (-194), LL East China basis is - 191 yuan/ton (-134), and PP East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-317) [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is - 554.7 yuan/ton (-260.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 704.7 yuan/ton (-260.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 650.4 yuan/ton (-124.6) [1]. - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is - 256.6 yuan/ton (-136.6), PP import profit is - 455.5 yuan/ton (-37.3), and PP export profit is - 59.5 US dollars/ton (+4.8) [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 47.7% (+4.9%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - PE: The Iran situation directly impacts China's PE imports from Iran. In 2025, China imported 1.13 million tons of PE from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. It is mainly non - standard products HD and LD, with LL accounting for 11.38%. The supply from other Middle - Eastern countries is also mainly non - standard products. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances may continue to drive up plastic prices. Currently, PE is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited demand and high inventory [3]. - PP: The Iran situation has little impact on overseas PP supply. The cost - push is the main factor. The deepening loss of PDH profit may lead to a continuation of the PDH maintenance peak, and the expected reduction in supply provides support for PP prices. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream demand [4]. III. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging [5]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided.