液氯价格上行，氧化铝液碱采购价格稳定

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are strong. The short - term supply - demand remains weak, and market sentiment is expected to improve later. For caustic soda, the spot price has a slight increase, and attention should be paid to the alumina start - up dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythm [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4868 yuan/ton (+76); the East China basis is - 228 yuan/ton (-46); the South China basis is - 88 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+30); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 58 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 439 yuan/ton (+157); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 11 yuan/ton (-102); the PVC export profit is 27.2 US dollars/ton (+10.6) [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The in - factory PVC inventory is 50.4 tons (-0.1); the social PVC inventory is 61.6 tons (+0.1); the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 81.77% (+0.59%); the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 80.40% (+1.53%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 81.35% (+0.87%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 78.0 tons (-2.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2082 yuan/ton (-43); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 95 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 636 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1020 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 979 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 344.3 yuan/ton (+79.2); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 197.71 yuan/ton (+50.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 716.79 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 54.09 tons (+9.80); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 4.40 tons (+0.46); the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.90% (-0.70%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 82.81% (-0.37%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 24.34% (+24.34%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - From April 1st, the export tax rebate for PVC is cancelled. The upstream export orders were signed until March before the festival, and the export orders this week increased slightly compared with before the festival. India launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, and the long - term export expectation decreased. The current supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises, but the expectation of spring maintenance in April increases. The downstream start - up has not returned to the pre - festival level, the social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year, and the PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, with increased spot pressure after the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March. Although the supply - demand is weak, the international geopolitical conflict over the weekend has strengthened the sentiment of the overall commodity market, and the rush to export has supported the spot. The mercury - free transformation has increased the market's expectation of the long - term cost of PVC. The short - term supply - demand remains weak, but the market sentiment is expected to improve later [3] Caustic Soda - Some traders and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks for rigid demand, and the spot price of caustic soda has increased slightly. The start - up of some liquid chlorine downstream industries has recovered, the liquid chlorine price has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - side start - up rate has increased slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. During the festival, due to logistics restrictions and reduced downstream start - up, the caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased. The demand - side receiving sentiment is average, some alumina plants are under maintenance, the start - up has decreased slightly, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The non - aluminum start - up decreased before the festival, the procurement behavior during the Spring Festival weakened, and the start - up and rigid - demand procurement increased after the festival. The low - price warehouse receipts have suppressed the market sentiment, and the main contract has a large premium. Attention should be paid to the alumina start - up dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythm [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillate in the short term, pay attention to downstream procurement sentiment - Inter - period: Wait and see - Inter - variety: None [5]