碳酸锂日报（2026年3月3日）-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 0.96% to 172,020 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 172,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 169,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 162,600 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 265 tons to 38,196 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the previous period's production increased by 1,638 tons to 21,822 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 1,460 tons to 13,484 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,812 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 250 tons to 3,290 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling increased by 78 tons to 2,236 tons. In March, domestic production is expected to increase by 28% to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to increase by 19% to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 24% to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the previous period's social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,839 tons to 100,093 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 4,471 tons to 40,021 tons, other links increasing by 170 tons to 41,690 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 1,462 tons to 18,382 tons [3]. - Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium concentrate exports has raised market concerns about supply. In 2026, Zimbabwe was originally expected to supply about 200,000 tons of LCE, accounting for 10% of the global total supply. The policy details and the duration of the impact are currently unknown, but it may affect the actual supply starting from mid - to late April to May. If the suspension lasts for a long time, the possibility of supplementary shipments after resumption also needs to be watched. From the perspective of supply - demand balance, inventory is expected to continue to decline in March. With the current total inventory turnover days of less than one month, there is still an expected demand for stockpiling even when prices fall, and the price support at the lower end is relatively strong. However, it should be noted that it takes time for raw material prices to be passed down. Considering the immediate profit of LFP cells, maintaining a price above 200,000 yuan/ton may lead to negative feedback at the terminal [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 172,020 yuan/ton, down 4,020 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 170,500 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,360 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,685 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,525 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 13,775 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 172,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 169,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 162,600 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 169,100 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 151,050 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 18.5 US dollars/kg, up 0.35 US dollars [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 125,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 3,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 9,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 34,513.4 yuan/ton, up 2,438 yuan. The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials mostly remained unchanged, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate (power - type, mid - to high - end energy storage, and low - end energy storage) increased by 120 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [19][22][23]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to February 2026 [36][37][40]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to March 2026 [41][42].