美以突袭伊朗影响持续地缘驱动甲醇强势上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - On March 2, 2026, the main methanol contract hit the daily limit due to geopolitical emergencies. The short - term focus of the domestic methanol market has returned to geopolitics, and the weak fundamental pattern may change. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation, the operation dynamics of domestic coastal downstream MTO devices, and the possible de - stocking rhythm [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Geopolitical Disturbance - The sudden change in the Iranian situation has a significant impact on China's methanol. Iran, the world's second - largest methanol producer, has a methanol production capacity of 17.16 million tons, accounting for about 9.2% of the global capacity. In 2025, China imported over 7.92 million tons of methanol from Iran, accounting for over 55% of total imports and about 7% of domestic apparent consumption. After the military attack, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking methanol sea - export channels and likely disrupting device restart rhythms [2] Overseas Market - Overseas methanol's main raw material, LNG, is significantly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure has led to a slowdown in logistics, pushing up gas prices in Europe and Asia, and thus increasing international methanol prices. If the closure persists, it will further stimulate gas price increases in Eurasia [2] Domestic Fundamental - Coastal methanol port inventories are still at a high level, with 1.4467 million tons in the week of February 27, 35% higher year - on - year. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, Chinese port inventories may decline in the short term. If the supply gap widens, it may affect the operation of coastal MTO devices, and inland enterprises may become the main supply alternative. The inland market has also raised prices following the coastal market [3] Market Sentiment - The sudden change in the Iranian situation has led to the collective rise of multiple varieties in the energy and chemical sector, and the market sentiment is inclined towards long - positions [3]