Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The expansion of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) production and the upward trend in energy value center are driving the scarcity and value appreciation of waste oil resources [10][11] - The proposed acquisition of an additional 10.61% stake by Conch Group in Conch Venture is expected to enhance control and lead to a revaluation of equity [14][15] - The environmental protection strategy for 2026 emphasizes value and growth resonance driven by dual carbon goals [19] Industry Overview SAF Expansion and Waste Oil Value - SAF production is expected to see a significant increase, with demand projected to reach 1.05 million tons by 2025 and 3.66 million tons by 2050, while supply remains constrained [10] - UCO (Used Cooking Oil) prices are currently at 7,400 RMB/ton, with potential price elasticity of 15%-58% as SAF production expands [11][12] Conch Group's Strategic Moves - Conch Group's acquisition aims to consolidate control over Conch Venture, with a projected market value of 235 billion HKD and a significant discount compared to peer valuations [18] Environmental Equipment Market - The sales of new energy sanitation vehicles increased by 70.9% in 2025, with a penetration rate of 21.11%, indicating strong growth in the sector [24][31] Biofuel Market Trends - Biojet fuel prices have seen a slight increase, with European prices rising by 100 USD/ton, while domestic prices remain stable [35] - UCO prices have stabilized, with restaurant waste oil averaging 7,400 RMB/ton [36] Lithium Battery Recycling - Prices for lithium and carbonate have increased, but profitability in the recycling sector has decreased, with average unit profits for waste materials remaining negative [44][45]
环保行业跟踪周报：SAF扩产+能源价值中枢上行，持续关注UCO端山高、朗坤，重视矿业双碳
Soochow Securities·2026-03-03 05:24