20260303申万期货品种策略日报：双焦（J&J）-20260303

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke trending weakly, with the total position of coking coal remaining basically flat compared to the previous period. Steel Union data shows that last week, both the molten iron output of sample steel mills and the steel mill profits increased slightly month - on - month, and both the auction volume and transaction rate of coking coal increased significantly month - on - month, indicating an improvement in coking coal demand. After the holiday, with the advancement of resuming work and production, there is an expectation of an increase in molten iron output, which will drive the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke, strongly supporting coal prices. The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran over the weekend and the geopolitical turmoil can also push up the valuation of energy - related commodities. Future focus should be on the trend of molten iron output, mine operation, import - end policy trends, and geopolitical trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market Data - Closing Prices: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for September, January, and May contracts were 1392.5, 1094.0, and 1194.5 respectively; for coke, they were 1818.0, 1652.0, and 1731.0 respectively. The price changes from the day before were 10.5, 0.5, 5.5 for coking coal and 12.0, 16.5, 16.5 for coke, with price change rates of 0.76%, 0.05%, 0.46% for coking coal and 0.66%, 1.01%, 0.96% for coke [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of coking coal contracts for September, January, and May were 3665, 896153, and 64478 respectively; for coke, they were 81, 18576, and 1294 respectively. The open interests of coking coal contracts for September, January, and May were 12663, 545543, and 106872 respectively; for coke, they were 1208, 40374, and 2811 respectively. The changes in open interest were 807, - 4204, 3086 for coking coal and 38, 230, 155 for coke [2] - Price Spreads: For coking coal, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, - 160.5 respectively; for coke, they were 160.5, - 77.5, - 83 respectively. The changes in spreads were 306, 2.5, - 308.5 for coking coal and 429.5, 2, - 431.5 for coke [2] Spot Market Data - Spot Prices: The current spot prices of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal (port self - pick - up price), low - sulfur coking coal (Linfen ex - works price), low - sulfur coking coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan Grade I coke (ex - works price), Medium - standard Grade I coke (ex - works price), and Rizhao Port Standard Grade I coke (warehouse - out price) were 1197, 1570, 1341, 1852, 1330, and 1480 respectively. The spot price of low - sulfur coking coal (Taiyuan rail - side price) decreased by 50, and the Rizhao Port Standard Grade I coke (warehouse - out price) increased by 10 [2] News and Analysis - Geopolitical News: Tensions between Iran and the US continue. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said Iran will not negotiate with the US. The advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any ships attempting to pass through would be attacked. In response, US President Trump announced that the US military will continue large - scale operations in Iran and plans to speak on the Iran issue at midnight Beijing time [2]