利率市场周度回顾：节后曲线整体走阔，关注两会前后市场博弈情况-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the overall yield curve widened. The 10Y Treasury bond active bond 250016 yield increased by 1.05BP to 1.7880% compared with the previous week [2]. - The post - holiday capital market was generally stable and broad, with minor cross - month disturbances and a slight rebound in the market leverage ratio. The central bank continuously net - withdrew liquidity in the open market, and the central level of capital interest rates slightly increased from the pre - holiday low [4]. - In terms of primary bond supply, the net financing volume of interest - rate bonds increased significantly this week, but certificates of deposit continued to be in a net repayment state [4]. - In the secondary market, affected by institutional profit - taking after the holiday and the introduction of the Shanghai real - estate policy, the bond market performed weakly this week [4]. - Next week's key points in the bond market include the release of February PMI data, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress, and the maturity of 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day reverse repurchases [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Money Market 3.1.1. Open - market Liquidity Injection - This week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.28), the central bank's open - market operations had a net liquidity withdrawal of 46.14 billion yuan. As of February 28, 2026, the balance of 7 - day reverse repurchases was 164.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.86 billion yuan compared with the pre - holiday week [11]. - The injection included 164.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 60 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities; the withdrawal included 225.24 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, 15 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities, and 30 billion yuan in medium - term lending facility maturities [15]. 3.1.2. Capital Market Operation - After the holiday, the capital market smoothly crossed the month, being generally stable and broad. As of February 28, 2026, DR007 was 1.50%, up 18.23BP compared with the pre - holiday week, and R007 was 1.51%, up 16.27BP [24]. - After the holiday, the trading activity of institutions recovered, and the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased significantly. As of February 28, 2026, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase (5DMA) was 6.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.57 trillion yuan compared with the previous week [24]. 3.2. Cash Bond Market 3.2.1. Primary Supply - The total net supply of interest - rate bonds this week was 36.443 billion yuan, an increase of 54.7814 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The cumulative net supply of interest - rate bonds this year was 262.1148 billion yuan, with 82.886 billion yuan for treasury bonds, 1.298 billion yuan for policy - financial bonds, and 177.9308 billion yuan for local bonds [36]. - The net supply of certificates of deposit this week was - 16.347 billion yuan, a decrease of - 11.67 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The net supply of treasury bonds was 37 billion yuan, an increase of 37 billion yuan; the net supply of policy - financial bonds was - 19.214 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.014 billion yuan; the net supply of local bonds was 18.657 billion yuan, an increase of 20.7954 billion yuan [36]. - The net financing of state - owned banks was - 17.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.579 billion yuan; the net financing of joint - stock banks was 0.833 billion yuan, an increase of 0.909 billion yuan [37]. 3.2.2. Secondary Market Operation - The performance of cash bonds was divergent, with only the 10Y Treasury bond and 7Y China Development Bank bond showing a slight decline [47]. - Absolute Level: The yield curve of Treasury bonds showed a divergent trend, with the 10Y Treasury bond performing better [49]. - Term Spread: Most term spreads widened this week, while the 10Y/1Y Treasury bond spread slightly narrowed [55]. - Variety Spread: The 1Y and 10Y China Development Bank bond/Treasury bond spreads widened, while the 30Y local bond/Treasury bond spread and 1Y certificate of deposit/China Development Bank bond spread narrowed [65][68]. - Overseas Spread: The 10Y and 1Y China - US spreads narrowed [71]. 3.3. Next Week's Bond Market Events - On Wednesday, February PMI data will be released, which can be used to assess the current fundamental recovery [75]. - On Thursday, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held, and attention should be paid to the setting of various economic targets for the new year [75]. - On Friday, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day reverse repurchases will mature, and attention should be paid to the central bank's liquidity hedging operations [75].