贵金属周报2026/03/02：不眠之夜-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid increase in the price of London spot gold from $5,000 per ounce to $5,400 per ounce within a week is mainly driven by the concentrated rise in market risk - aversion sentiment, which stems from the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and panic trading in the US stock market regarding AI development. Under the dominance of risk - aversion sentiment, the whole market switches to a "risk - aversion first" trading strategy, with US Treasury bonds, the US dollar, and precious metals rising simultaneously [3]. - The current focus of the Middle - East situation is the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader. The confrontation among the US, Israel, and Iran is more likely to become long - term, and the tail risk of continuous conflict will systematically raise the central price of gold [3]. - The support of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict for gold will also form a secondary drive through the transmission of oil prices to inflation expectations. If the conflict escalates and causes the supply interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices are likely to soar, leading to an increase in global inflation expectations and further strengthening the allocation attractiveness of gold as an inflation - resistant asset [3]. - To judge whether the short - term gold price can continue to rise, the change in internal - external premium is the core observation indicator. Currently, there is no obvious sign of acceleration in the internal - external premium, so it is not advisable to easily judge that the top has been reached [3]. - AI panic trading has pushed up the expectation of interest rate cuts, with the expected annual interest rate cut increasing to 60.9 bps. The concerns about the negative impact of AI on software companies and the labor market have lowered the threshold for the Fed to cut interest rates [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs AI Panic Trading and Interest Rate Expectations - AI panic trading has pushed up the expectation of interest rate cuts, with the expected annual interest rate cut reaching 60.9 bps. Concerns about the impact of AI on software companies and the labor market have lowered the Fed's threshold for interest rate cuts [7]. US Treasury Yields - Last week, the yields of US Treasury bonds at various maturities declined. The 30 - year UST yield dropped 11.1 bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield dropped 13.57 bps to 3.95%, and the 2 - year UST yield dropped 9.9 bps to 3.4%. The yield curve flattened. The decline in yields is mainly due to the increase in risk - aversion demand, which goes against the relatively strong US economic data [10]. Fed Reserves - Last week, the usage of ONRRP was $329.2 billion, a decrease of $1.26 billion from the previous value. The Fed's reserve balance on Wednesday last week was $3.004 trillion, an increase of $44.4 billion from the previous week [15]. US Treasury Bond Positions - As of February 24, there was a divergence in the positions of long - and short - term US Treasury bond interest rates. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures increased by 113,628 lots to 1,348,036 lots, while the non - commercial net short positions of 10 - year UST futures decreased by 103,833 lots to 744,020 lots [20]. US Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS declined. The 5 - year TIPS yield closed at 1.11%, a decrease of 11 bps from the previous week, and the 10 - year TIPS yield closed at 1.72%, a decrease of 8 bps from the previous week [28]. US Dollar Index and Liquidity - Last week, the US dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. Gold rose 3.4%, and the US dollar index fell 0.1% to 97.6, with the rolling correlation between them decreasing. The US dollar appreciated 0.7% against the yen, depreciated 0.3% against the euro, and depreciated 0.1% against the pound [34]. - As of February 24, the total position of the US dollar index decreased. The non - commercial long positions decreased by 2,121 contracts to 13,300 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4 contracts to 15,100 contracts, with the short side dominant. In terms of position ratios, the non - commercial long position ratio was 51%, a decrease from the previous week, and the non - commercial short position ratio was 58%, an increase from the previous week [38]. - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap of the yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore US dollar liquidity increased [41]. Inflation High - Frequency Indicators - Last week, the copper - gold ratio dropped to 2.52, indicating that the growth rate of copper prices was lower than that of gold, and the marginal decline in global total demand momentum [48]. Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - silver ratio fluctuated downward because the increase in the gold price was less than that of silver last week; the gold - copper ratio increased because the increase in the gold price was greater than that of copper; the gold - oil ratio increased month - on - month because the increase in the oil price was less than that of gold [57]. - From the perspective of rolling correlation, the correlation between gold and the US dollar index and copper decreased, while the correlation with crude oil increased [63]. - The internal - external premiums of silver and gold tended to be stable, and the Asian influence was not fully prominent [68]. Inventory and Positions - In terms of inventory, last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 33.321 million ounces, a decrease of 599,000 ounces month - on - month, and the COMEX silver inventory was 360.333 million ounces, a decrease of 5.925 million ounces month - on - month. The SHFE gold inventory was about 105.1 tons, a decrease of 0.012 tons month - on - month, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 43.0 tons to 306.6 tons month - on - month [74]. - The SPDR gold ETF position increased by 22.6 tons to 1,101.3 tons, and the current position scale is near the lower median of the past 10 years; the SLV silver ETF position increased by 474.8 tons to 15,992.4 tons, and it is currently at a medium - to - high level [80]. - The total COMEX gold position increased by 13,104 lots to 420,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions decreased by 1,783 lots to 211,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,045 lots to 52,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side power of gold allocation. In terms of position ratios, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 50%, and the non - commercial short position ratio decreased to around 12% [86]. - The total COMEX silver position decreased by 6,042 lots to 125,000 lots. Among them, the non - commercial long positions decreased by 4,126 lots to 33,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,383 lots to 10,000 lots, indicating an increase in the short - side power of silver allocation. In terms of position ratios, the non - commercial long position ratio decreased to around 25.9%, and the non - commercial short position ratio decreased to around 8.2% [91].