中东局势升温，大宗商品全线走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has led to a strong performance in commodities. The Iran situation mainly affects crude oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and the shipping sector. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, but there is a risk of "selling on the news". An escalation of the event will increase global inflation risks [1]. - During the two - sessions in China, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the two - sessions, the stock index recovers. The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the PMI in February was under pressure, while the PPI in January continued to rise. China's social financing in January had a good start, indicating that pro - growth policies may be implemented in advance [2]. - There are opportunities for bottom - fishing in commodity sectors. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unresolved, and precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, attention should be paid to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation, and there is a risk of "selling on the news". The OPEC+ will increase production from April. The chemical sector is relatively resistant to decline, and the agricultural sector needs to focus on weather and pig diseases. The black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. - The strategy is to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 28, the US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran, and Iran attacked multiple US military bases. The Strait of Hormuz remains open. The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is expected to cause a 40 - day national mourning. The conflict may affect crude oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and the shipping sector. The probability of a ground war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is low. The political direction after a possible regime change in Iran is unclear, which may affect oil exports and nuclear negotiations. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, and once the event escalates, it will increase global inflation risks. The European benchmark natural gas futures rose by 50% due to the suspension of LNG production in Qatar. On March 2, the A - share market rose, and the "Three Barrels of Oil" stocks hit the daily limit for the first time [1]. Two - Sessions Analysis - During the two - sessions, the A - share market has a "selling on the news" performance, with the average A - share index showing negative growth, but the average probability of sample stocks rising is close to 50%. The commodity sector is under obvious pressure, with a sample rise probability of only 15%. After the two - sessions, the stock index strengthens again, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 leading in terms of gains and winning rates, while the commodity sector shows no obvious pattern [2]. Commodity Sector Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, with high certainty [3]. - Precious metals: Have allocation value after the adjustment [3]. - Energy: Pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. Oil prices are driven by geopolitical factors, but there is a risk of "selling on the news". OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, higher than the market expectation of 137,000 barrels per day [3][5]. - Chemicals: PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [3]. - Agriculture: Pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases [3]. - Black: Focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4] Important News - European natural gas prices continued to rise. Qatar Energy Company suspended LNG production, causing the benchmark futures price to soar by 45%. Oil tankers have basically stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The EU believes that there is no urgent concern about energy supply security and will convene an oil coordination group meeting in the next 48 hours. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April [5].