恒生科技ETF，2026年2月复盘及3月展望

Market Performance Review - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a "volatile downward trend, with a mid-month rebound followed by another bottoming out," declining by 10.15% from January 31 to February 28, 2026, with a trading volume of approximately 1,203.1 billion [11][12] - As of February 28, 2026, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 21.20, positioned at the 16.00% historical percentile since its inception, indicating a relatively low historical valuation [16][19] - The risk degree TR of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 7.04 as of February 27, 2026, remaining in a historically low range, suggesting that the market's prior adjustment time and space were sufficient, making the current risk-reward ratio attractive [20][22] Event-Driven Analysis Macro Level - In February, external hawkish pressures dominated, with U.S. employment and monetary policy becoming core pricing factors, reinforcing expectations of prolonged high interest rates, which suppressed the valuation of the tech sector [28][29] - Domestic macro factors provided some support, with increasing foreign reserves stabilizing the exchange rate and a recovering CPI improving profit expectations, contributing to a weak support for the index [28][29] Policy Level - In February, coordinated policy efforts from both mainland China and Hong Kong aimed to improve liquidity and stabilize expectations, with the central bank's MLF net injection and adjustments to the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio providing direct liquidity support [39][40] - The Hong Kong government's budget plan included reforms to enhance the attractiveness of the stock market for tech companies, which is expected to provide a solid foundation for long-term valuation support [41][42] Industry Dynamics - The AI sector's high prosperity, improved funding conditions, and advancements in financial technology provided significant support for the Hang Seng Tech Index, with Nvidia's earnings report confirming strong demand for AI computing power [44][47] - However, the overall weak performance of U.S. stocks negatively impacted the transmission of these positive factors to the Hong Kong tech sector, leading to increased short-term volatility [44][48] Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to continue a "low-level oscillation and repeated bottoming" pattern in March 2026, with a lack of strong fundamental and funding support for a trend reversal [5][6] - Key upcoming events include macroeconomic data releases, policy pricing, and performance validations, which will collectively influence the index's trajectory [5][6]