1-2月经济数据前瞻：中游出口强劲增长

External Demand - Export growth is expected to be around 7% year-on-year in USD terms for January-February, while imports are projected to grow by 9%[2] - The global manufacturing PMI for January was 50.9%, up from 50.4% in December, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[11] - Container throughput at Chinese ports increased by 12.4% year-on-year in the first nine weeks of the year, compared to 10.7% in the same period last year[11] Midstream Manufacturing - AI investment is expected to significantly boost electronic exports, with South Korea's export growth reaching 31.4% in January, up from 13.4% in December[3] - Semiconductor and electronic product exports surged by 115.2% in January, compared to 17.5% in December[12] - Mechanical and electrical equipment exports from Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia grew by 45% in January, a substantial increase from 16.9% in December[3] Domestic Demand - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth is projected to recover to around 2% for January-February, driven by increased investment from central enterprises[4] - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 2.4%, with essential consumption (excluding subsidies) growing at 5% and subsidized items declining by 8%[4] - Industrial production growth is estimated at 5.5%, supported by strong freight activity, although automotive production may weaken due to subsidy policy adjustments[4] Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to approximately 0.9% year-on-year in February, up from 0.2% in January, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and rising oil prices[5] - PPI is projected to improve slightly to -1.2% year-on-year, compared to -1.4% in January, with the non-ferrous sector stabilizing[5] Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to be around 1.2 trillion yuan in February, a decrease of 880 billion yuan year-on-year, with the stock growth rate falling to approximately 7.9%[6] - M2 growth is projected at 8.8% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to be around 4%[6]