基本面暂无新波动出现，铜价或维持区间宽幅震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level within the range of 102,000 - 104,000 RMB per ton [3][49] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the main SHFE copper contract on March 2, 2026, was 103,300 RMB per ton, a slight increase of 210 RMB or 0.2% from February 27. The discounts of premium copper, flat - grade copper, and wet - process copper all narrowed on March 2, 2026, indicating a strengthening basis. The LME (0 - 3) basis on February 27, 2026, was - 49.47 USD per ton, stronger than on February 24 [1][38] - Position and Trading Volume: Position and trading volume data were not provided, but the price movement of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract on March 2, 2026, showed a 1.10% drop in 24 minutes, indicating increased market volatility and potentially expanding trading volume [39] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: In 2026, floods caused a bridge collapse in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cutting off the copper export channel and affecting one - third of the electrolytic copper export transportation of the world's second - largest producer, potentially leading to short - term supply shortages. However, the anode copper inventory days of smelters decreased to 7.92 days in February 2026, still at a relatively high level, and Southeast Copper completed its raw material procurement task in January, showing stable domestic supply [2][40] - Demand Side: Globally, copper demand is strong, driven by electrification, renewable energy, and AI data centers. But in the spot market, demand recovery is slow, and high copper prices suppress consumption. In the US, the surge in refined copper imports reflects strategic inventory accumulation [2][43] - Inventory Side: LME inventory increased to 295,881 tons on March 2, 2026, a 1.82% increase; SHFE inventory slightly increased, and COMEX inventory also rose, indicating overall inventory accumulation [2][51] Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Supply - side issues may cause short - term shortages, but high smelter inventories and stable domestic supply provide a buffer. Global demand growth supports prices, but slow spot recovery and high copper prices limit consumption. Supply issues boost the shortage expectation in the macro - mood, but inventory accumulation and weak demand restrict the upside space. The price range is expected to be between 102,000 and 104,000 RMB per ton [3][46]