纯苯、苯乙烯日报：中东局势升级，成本驱动芳烃走强-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East situation has pushed up crude oil prices, causing the cost of pure benzene to rise passively. However, the elasticity of pure benzene is relatively limited due to its own supply - demand structure. In the short term, it is driven by oil prices to fluctuate strongly, but the sustainable upward space depends on the inventory removal speed and downstream profit realization [3]. - Styrene is more sensitive to geopolitical risks. Its cost is strongly supported by the rising oil price, and its supply - demand structure has improved marginally. In the short term, it maintains a strongly fluctuating pattern under the support of cost increase and inventory removal expectations, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the phased disturbances brought by oil price fluctuations and device restart rhythms [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental - On March 2nd, the main contract of styrene closed up 5.87% at 7,966 yuan/ton, and the main contract of pure benzene closed up 6.96% at 6,551 yuan/ton [2]. - Styrene's monthly import was 16,873 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.64%; exports were 16,379 tons, a year - on - year increase of 382.71%. Monthly production was 1.5587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.86%, and the operating rate was 74.65% (+1.45%). The inventory at East China ports was 158,100 tons (+61,900 tons), and the factory inventory was 209,100 tons (+48,300 tons) [2]. - For downstream products, EPS production was 191,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36%, and the operating rate was 12.18%; PS production was 417,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.11%, and the operating rate was 49.40%; ABS production was 587,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.08%, and the operating rate was 70.70% [2]. - Pure benzene's monthly import was 537,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; production was 1.827 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.84%, and the operating rate was 78.87%. The inventory at East China ports was 304,000 tons, at a high level in the same period of history; the production of hydrobenzene was 315,000 tons, and the operating rate was 62.67% [2]. Views - Pure benzene: The supply is still at a high level, and the demand side has a certain ability to absorb. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly under the drive of oil prices, and the upward space depends on inventory removal and downstream profits [3]. - Styrene: The supply elasticity is limited, the inventory pressure is controllable, the demand side is warming up, and it maintains a strongly fluctuating pattern in the short term, but it is necessary to be vigilant against disturbances [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - The main contract of styrene futures rose 5.87% from 7,524 yuan/ton on February 27th to 7,966 yuan/ton on March 2nd; the spot price of styrene rose 3.41% from 7,630 yuan/ton to 7,890 yuan/ton [5]. - The main contract of pure benzene futures rose 6.96% from 6,125 yuan/ton to 6,551 yuan/ton; the price of pure benzene in East China rose 6.8% from 6,080 yuan/ton to 6,480 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and CFR in China also had different degrees of increase [5]. - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 18.90%, and the spread between East China and Shandong of pure benzene increased by 571.43% [5]. - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all increased, with increases of 2.78%, 2.87%, and 3.53% respectively [5]. Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From January 30th to February 6th, styrene production in China increased by 0.98% from 348,000 tons to 350,000 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 3.29% from 429,000 tons to 443,000 tons [6]. - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 7.95% from 101,000 tons to 109,000 tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory remained unchanged at 305,000 tons [6]. Operating Rate - For pure benzene downstream, the operating rate of styrene increased from 69.3% to 70.0%, an increase of 0.68%; the operating rate of caprolactam decreased from 73.6% to 73.2%, a decrease of 0.41%; the operating rate of phenol decreased from 88.3% to 86.0%, a decrease of 2.29%; the operating rate of aniline increased from 88.5% to 89.0%, an increase of 0.51% [7]. - For styrene downstream, the operating rate of EPS increased from 53.3% to 56.2%, an increase of 2.98%; the operating rate of ABS decreased from 66.1% to 64.4%; the operating rate of PS decreased from 55.6% to 55.2%, a decrease of 0.40% [7]. 3. Industry News - WTI April crude oil futures closed down $0.27, a decline of 0.38%, at $66.31 per barrel. Brent April crude oil futures closed down $0.27, a decline of 0.38%, at $71.49 per barrel [8]. - On Monday, the CFR price of PX at Honglian decreased by $1.33 to $924.67 [8]. - The European Parliament suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement [8]. - According to CCTV citing US media reports, the US may launch a military strike against Iran on February 23rd or 24th [8]. - The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in February was 0.2, the highest since July 2025, with an expected value of - 0.5 [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][12][19]