冲突时刻，海外债利率如何走

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on US Treasury yields is a "sentiment pulse" rather than a trend driver. The real factors affecting interest rates are inflation expectations, monetary policy paths, and fiscal deficits. In the absence of a full - scale war leading to hyperinflation or fiscal collapse, geopolitical events cannot continuously push up or down interest rates. The current decline in US Treasury yields has some support, but the conditions for a trend reversal are not yet sufficient. The biggest risk is the re - pricing of energy prices [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Historical Review: How Big is the Disturbance of Geopolitical Conflicts on US Treasuries - Geopolitical conflicts have a more complex impact on US Treasury yields than market intuitions. The logic of "war breaks out → funds seek refuge → yields decline" does not hold in most historical cases. Short - term local wars have limited impact on US Treasury yields. For example, during the Gulf War, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated within ±20bp; during the Falklands War, the change in UK Treasury yields was negligible. During the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, the yield declined by 12bp on the invasion day but then rose by over 200bp due to inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate hikes. In the long - term, the increase in US Treasury yields during the Vietnam War was due to inflation, and the decline during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars was due to quantitative easing after the dot - com bubble burst and the financial crisis. Geopolitical conflicts are at most short - term emotional disturbances, and their impact on interest rates usually lasts no more than a few weeks [8][9]. 3.2 Market Review: Direct Triggers for the Current Decline in US Treasuries - In February, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped by about 28bp, reaching a new low since November 2025. The decline was driven by four factors: geopolitical events (the deadlock in Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the breakdown of US - Iran nuclear talks) triggered risk - averse capital inflows; weak macro - fundamentals (Q4 2025 GDP growth of only 1.4% and low consumer confidence) strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts; the marginal loosening of the valuation logic of technology stocks led to the defensive transfer of some equity funds; the positive spread of US Treasuries relative to German and Japanese bonds attracted international investors, and the strong credit market also increased the demand for high - quality credit assets. In addition, the supply - demand mismatch of long - term bonds intensified the downward pressure on yields. At the end of February, the escalation of the Middle East situation had not been fully priced in by the US Treasury market [15][16][18]. 3.3 Current Judgment: Sustainability of the Current Safe - Haven Market - The decline in US Treasury yields has some support. The weakening of macro - data is hard to reverse in the short term, and the market is still re - pricing the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The credit market is strong, and the spread advantage of US Treasuries remains. However, the biggest risk is the re - pricing of energy prices. After the US - Israel military strike on Iran, oil prices rose by over 13%. If oil prices remain high, inflation expectations will be re - activated, putting upward pressure on US Treasuries. Therefore, the oil price trend and Fed officials' statements after last week's opening are key to judging the sustainability of the safe - haven market. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about US Treasury bulls and not to over - chase long - duration exposures [25][26].