天然橡胶期货月报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In March 2026, the natural rubber market is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend, but the upside space may be limited. Supply and demand factors, as well as macro - economic and technical aspects, all have an impact on the market. Key factors such as weather in major producing countries, tire enterprise resumption progress, import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic policies need to be focused on [3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - In February 2026, the main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a volatile upward trend. The opening price at the beginning of the month was 16,610 yuan/ton, the lowest was 16,515 yuan/ton, the highest was 17,370 yuan/ton, and the closing price at the end of the month was 17,155 yuan/ton, up 840 yuan/ton from the previous month. The end - of - month position was 174,215 lots, an increase of 33,980 lots from the end of the previous month [1] 2. Spot Market Situation in the Current Month - In February, the spot market price showed an overall upward trend. The leading price of Chinese natural rubber spot rose from $2,323.02/ton on February 2 to $2,469.42/ton on February 27, with a maximum of $2,495.63/ton on February 26. The price of 20 - grade rubber spot also rose from $1,951.15/ton on February 2 to $2,073.48/ton on February 27 [1] 3. Main Influencing Factors Supply - side Factors - Seasonal production reduction: In mid - to - late February, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia gradually entered the low - production season. Coupled with local rainfall affecting the rubber output, the raw material output was lower than the same period last year. Domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan were in the winter suspension period, resulting in a supply - tight pattern [1] - Decrease in export volume: In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber export volume was 371,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73,400 tons, a decline of 16.51%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.43%, which supported the price [2] - Inventory change: As of February 27, the natural rubber inventory increased by 400 tons to 124,980 tons [2] Demand - side Factors - Tire industry operating rate: On February 13, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 59.44%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, indicating certain support from downstream demand [3] - Demand growth expectation: The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) expects the natural rubber demand in 2026 to increase by 1.7% to 1.56 billion tons [3] Market sentiment Factors - Impact of the Spring Festival holiday: During the Spring Festival, the overseas natural rubber futures prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of February 23, the settlement price of the Singapore TSR20 main 2605 contract was 194.4 cents/kg, up 2.2 cents/kg from the last trading day before the holiday, a rise of 1.14%; the closing price of the Japanese rubber main 2607 contract was 356.4 yen/kg, up 9.3 yen/kg from the last trading day before the holiday, a rise of 2.68% [3] 4. Short - term Outlook Supply - In March, the seasonal increase in natural rubber imports and the seasonal recovery of demand may lead to relatively stable inventory. Southeast Asian major producing countries are still in the low - production season, and the tight supply of raw materials is difficult to improve significantly, with strong cost - side support. Domestic production areas are still in the suspension period, and the supply of domestic rubber is limited [3] Demand - After the Spring Festival, downstream tire enterprises will gradually resume work and production, and the rigid demand for procurement is expected to increase, which will support the natural rubber price. The continuous development of the new energy vehicle industry will drive the growth of tire demand and boost natural rubber consumption [3] Macro - economy - The global monetary easing cycle and the overall valuation increase of commodities may have a positive impact on the natural rubber price. However, the impact of the macro - economic recovery process and policy changes on market sentiment needs to be noted [4] Technical Aspect - The Shanghai rubber price has broken through the previous range and started a volatile upward trend, with an obvious increase in the price bottom. However, the risk of a high - level correction should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of key positions and changes in trading volume [4] Key Factors to Focus on - Weather changes and rubber - tapping conditions in major producing countries, the resumption progress of domestic tire enterprises, natural rubber import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic policy trends. In addition, the price trend of synthetic rubber and its substitution effect on natural rubber also need to be noted [4][5]