碳酸锂日报：热点降温后回归基本面，碳酸锂短期或需消化溢价-20260303

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On March 2, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped slightly to 172,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,020 yuan or 2.28% from February 27, 2026; the basis strengthened to -1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,020 yuan from the previous value, indicating a narrowing of the futures discount [1][44]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: During the same period, the open interest of the main contract shrank to 378,336 lots, a decrease of 3,216 lots or 0.84%; the trading volume shrank to 227,061 lots, a decrease of 54,919 lots or 19.48%, showing a decline in market activity [1][44]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply Side: As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 85.72%, and the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 18,010 yuan/ton and 10,150 yuan/ton respectively; upstream lithium salt producers maintained firm quotes and had a weak willingness to sell spot orders [2][45]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials were generally stable, with the price of power-type lithium iron phosphate rising slightly to 58,990 yuan/ton; according to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, the short - term sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year but the cumulative sales decreased. The new battery production capacity was affected by macro uncertainties, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict might suppress consumer confidence [2][45]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline. The latest data showed that the inventory on February 27, 2026, was 100,093 physical tons, less than the previous period, providing support for prices; the warehouse receipt data was not updated, but the inventory trend indicated a de - stocking process [2][45]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. The reasons are as follows: the supply side remains stable, and the continuous decline in inventory provides bottom support; on the demand side, although there are signs of growth in new energy vehicle sales, macro risks such as energy price fluctuations and uncertainties caused by the Middle East conflict may limit the recovery of demand. Meanwhile, the contraction of market trading and open interest shows a strong wait - and - see sentiment, limiting the upside potential of prices. In summary, the price may stabilize at the current level in the short term, but close attention should be paid to the further impact of geopolitical events on the industrial chain [3][46].