3月信用月报：超长债博弈空间有限，关注二永债相对价值-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of the year, long - term and ultra - long - term credit bonds have performed well. The participation of trading desks, along with the entry of allocation desks and the concentrated opening of amortizing debt funds, has been a key factor in the rapid narrowing of credit spreads [1][14]. - In March, the credit bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern due to factors such as the intertwined bull - bear factors in the bond market, insufficient spread protection, and the "strong supply and weak demand" pressure [22]. - It is recommended to control duration, use leverage strategies to increase returns, and buy high - grade long - term bonds on dips. There are also opportunities for short - term credit bond carry trades [23]. 3. Summary of Each Section 2.1 2 - month Credit Bond Market Review and March Outlook 2.1.1 2 - month Credit Spread Review - In February 2026, the credit bond market bid farewell to the comprehensive spread compression in January, showing an "N" - shaped spread trend. The spreads of 10 - year ultra - long credit bonds narrowed significantly, outperforming other tenors [10]. - In the first week (2.2 - 2.6), credit spreads generally widened passively; in the second week (2.9 - 2.13), spreads narrowed overall with long - term bonds having an edge; in the post - holiday week (2.24 - 2.27), spreads showed a differentiated performance [10]. 2.1.2 Observation of Institutional Behavior Since the Beginning of the Year - Other asset management institutions are the largest buyers of 7 - 10Y credit bonds, followed by insurance and funds. Insurance's net buying of 7 - 10Y credit bonds is significantly stronger than last year, related to the "开门红" of dividend - paying insurance [14][17]. - Funds turned to net buying of 7 - 10Y credit bonds in February, possibly due to limited downward compression space for spreads within 5Y and the high cost - performance of ultra - long credit bonds [14]. - Since the beginning of the year, public funds have strongly bought credit bonds within 5Y, far exceeding the seasonal level. 3 - 5Y credit bonds are the main allocation targets, and the concentrated opening of amortizing fixed - term debt funds has brought incremental demand [19]. 2.1.3 March Credit Bond Market Outlook - In March, the credit bond market is likely to be volatile. The market is affected by factors like the calendar effect, insufficient spread protection, and the "strong supply and weak demand" situation [22]. - Strategies include controlling duration, using leverage to enhance returns, and buying high - grade long - term bonds on dips. There are carry trade opportunities for short - term credit bonds [23]. 2.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - In February, credit bond yields mainly declined, with medium - and long - term credit bonds performing better. Among general credit bonds, most bond types declined, with some medium - and long - term bonds performing best [28]. - Financial bond yields also declined, with medium - and long - term bonds performing better. 5 - year brokerage subordinated bonds and some 10 - year bonds had the largest yield declines [28]. - As of the end of February, the overall wealth management scale increased, the one - year average annualized return slightly declined, and the net - breaking rates of all bank wealth management and wealth management subsidiaries decreased [30]. 2.3 Primary Market 2.3.1 Issuance Volume - In February, the credit bond issuance volume and net financing volume decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net financing volumes of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all declined compared to the same period last year [35]. 2.3.2 Issuance Term - The average issuance term of credit bonds slightly decreased. The average issuance term of urban investment bonds remained flat, industrial bonds decreased, and financial bonds increased [43]. 2.3.3 Issuance Cost - The average issuance cost of credit bonds decreased. The average issuance rates of industrial and urban investment bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased slightly [46]. 2.3.4 Cancellation of Issuance - The number and scale of credit bond issuance cancellations decreased in February compared to the previous month [51]. 2.4 Secondary Market 2.4.1 Trading Volume - Affected by holidays, the trading volumes of all types of credit bonds decreased in February. The trading terms of urban investment and industrial bonds extended, and the trading of different ratings also changed [55]. 2.4.2 Trading Liquidity - The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased in February. The turnover rates of short - term urban investment and industrial bonds and long - term financial bonds decreased significantly [58]. 2.4.3 Spread Tracking - In February, the spreads of urban investment bonds showed different trends. The spreads of medium - and low - grade bonds within 5Y and all ratings of 10Y bonds narrowed, with the 10Y AAA - rated urban investment bonds having the largest narrowing [64]. - Most provincial spreads narrowed. Among AAA - rated and AA - rated industrial bonds, most industry spreads narrowed, with the banking industry having the largest narrowing [67]. - The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds mostly narrowed, mainly in 1Y, 5Y, and 10Y. Insurance subordinated bond spreads mostly narrowed, while brokerage subordinated bond spreads mostly widened [70][72]. 2.5 February's Hottest Bonds - Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scores, the top 20 most liquid urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds are selected for investors' reference [74]. 2.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - In February 2026, 3 bonds had their debt ratings upgraded, and there were no downgrades [80].