1月汽车出口高速增长，汽车铝消费仍预期乐观

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the domestic automobile production was good mainly due to the contribution of the export market, with only a slight year - on - year increase of 6000 vehicles in domestic sales [1][14]. - The impact of new energy vehicle replacement demand and subsidy policies on domestic consumption was concentrated in 2023 - 2024, with domestic consumption growth rates of 7.5% and 4.2% respectively, dropping to 1.2% in 2025 [1]. - The subsidy policy change in 2026 had different impacts on the purchase costs of new energy and fuel vehicles of different prices [27]. - The export market was differentiated, but there were still positive expectations for China's automobile export market in 2026 [32][33]. - The demand for aluminum consumption driven by the automobile industry remained optimistic [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Export Statistical Caliber Difference Explanation - The report analyzed the differences in statistical calibers between the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and customs data. In terms of production, CAAM's statistics included passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and non - complete vehicles. In terms of exports, customs data covered KD散件, chassis, non - complete vehicles, low - speed electric vehicles, bonded area inventory, and second - hand cars, while CAAM only counted off - shore vehicles [9][10]. - In 2024, due to the Red Sea crisis, customs data was significantly higher than CAAM data because customs data included "declared but not departed" inventory vehicles [12]. 3.2 Domestic Automobile Market Production Driven by Exports - In 2025, China's automobile production was 34.531 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. New energy vehicle production was 16.626 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The export volume was 9.362 million vehicles according to customs data and 7.097 million vehicles according to CAAM data. The estimated domestic automobile supply in 2025 was 26.568 million vehicles, with an increment of 1.41 million vehicles compared to 2024, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [14]. - In 2025, the domestic automobile consumption was 25.97 million vehicles, only a year - on - year increase of 6000 vehicles, indicating that the good production was mainly due to the export market [14]. 3.3 Limited Impact of Automobile Subsidy Withdrawal on Domestic Demand - In 2025, the automobile subsidy policies (scrap and replacement subsidies) were almost the same as in 2024. The marginal impact of policy factors on domestic demand consumption began to decline. The growth rates of domestic consumption in 2023 - 2024 were 7.5% and 4.2% respectively, dropping to 1.2% in 2025 [21]. - In 2026, the automobile subsidy policy changed to a price - ratio - based subsidy with a peak value. The subsidy peak was the same as in 2025. The purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles also changed, with a half - reduction in 2026 compared to exemption in 2025. Taking a 150,000 - yuan new energy vehicle as an example, the purchase tax increased by 7500 yuan/ton in 2026 compared to 2025, with a total increase of 9500 yuan in scrap purchase cost and 10500 yuan in replacement purchase cost. For a 150,000 - yuan fuel vehicle, the purchase tax remained the same as in 2025, the scrap subsidy was the same, and the replacement purchase cost increased by 4000 yuan [27]. 3.4 Export Market Differentiation, Still Promising in 2026 - In 2025, the cumulative automobile export volume was 7.097 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.13% (1.238 million vehicles). The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.583 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 102.6%, accounting for 36.4% of the total export volume. In January 2026, the automobile export volume was 681,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.9% [32]. - From January to September 2025, China's automobile export to Africa increased significantly, with a cumulative export of 471,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 112.6%. The export to the EU increased by 38.2%, while the export to Europe only increased by 2.1%. The export to North America decreased from a growth of over 30% in 2024 to - 9.7% in 2025, indicating the influence of geopolitics on trade [32]. - The EU's automobile import policy was in a rapid adjustment period, changing to a "tariff/price commitment" framework. Different estimates of the export situation in 2026 showed that the export market could drive the domestic automobile production growth rate by 3.6% - 8.4%. The neutral estimate was that the export market could drive the domestic automobile production growth rate by 5 - 6% [33][34]. 3.5 Automobile's Positive Impact on Aluminum Consumption - Under the neutral estimate of domestic demand, due to the subsidy withdrawal, domestic automobile consumption decreased by 2%, from 26 million vehicles to 25.5 million vehicles. Under the neutral estimate of exports, the export could drive the domestic automobile production growth rate by 6.3%. With the addition of cleared but not yet shipped export vehicles, the domestic automobile production could reach 36 - 36.5 million vehicles, contributing to an increase of over 800,000 tons in aluminum consumption. If there were additional favorable policies to prevent the decline of domestic automobile consumption, the domestic automobile production could reach 37 million vehicles, contributing to an increase of nearly 1 million tons in aluminum consumption [3][39].