周报：铁水回升待终端需求改善，原料低位震荡-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the raw material replenishment was insufficient, and the market was under pressure and weak. The overall raw material end was under pressure, the steel mills had insufficient motivation to replenish inventory, and the supply end gradually recovered after the festival. The coking coal showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The high inventory of iron ore created pressure for inventory accumulation, and the overall trend of the raw material end was weak. The short - term iron ore and coking coal and coke were in a low - level shock, and attention should be paid to the improvement of terminal demand and the impact of energy price increases [3][4][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - After the first week of the Spring Festival, the raw material end was under pressure. The steel mills had insufficient motivation to replenish inventory, and there was a production reduction expectation in North China, so the procurement was cautious. The supply end gradually recovered after the festival, and the coking coal showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The high inventory of iron ore created pressure for inventory accumulation, and the overall raw material end was weak [9]. - The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased [9]. 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The iron ore price index was 101.63 (up 3.11% month - on - month and 0.20% year - on - year). The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2713.3 million tons (up 28.30% month - on - month and 5.35% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2146.9 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 19.06% year - on - year) [18]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron was 233.28 million tons (up 2.79 million tons month - on - month and 5.43 million tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume of 45 ports of iron ore was 298.48 million tons (down 15.01% month - on - month and 0.12% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.47 days (down 16.06% month - on - month and 2.45% year - on - year) [23]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore was 17091.96 million tons (up 0.86% month - on - month and 17.25% year - on - year). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9085.1 million tons (down 15.12% month - on - month and 0.90% year - on - year). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 24.05 days (down 22.04% month - on - month and 4.34% year - on - year) [28]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The coking coal mine operating rate was 68.24% (up 39.58% month - on - month and down 19.62% year - on - year). The daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.17 million tons (up 82.88% month - on - month and 128.91% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 22.73% (down 29.58% month - on - month and 32.55% year - on - year) [33]. - Coking Enterprises: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 7 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month and 33 yuan/ton year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.36% (up 2.02% month - on - month and 3.84% year - on - year). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.09% (down 0.28% month - on - month and 1.11% year - on - year) [40]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 893.36 million tons (down 20.11% month - on - month and up 30.24% year - on - year). The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 820.16 million tons (down 2.13% month - on - month and up 8.15% year - on - year). The coking coal port inventory was 271.97 million tons (up 5.25% month - on - month and down 34.64% year - on - year) [46]. - Coke Inventory: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 62.19 million tons (up 12.01% month - on - month and down 35.99% year - on - year). The coke inventory of steel mills was 675.11 million tons (down 1.96% month - on - month and 0.86% year - on - year). The coke port inventory was 197.1 million tons (down 0.98% month - on - month and up 3.66% year - on - year) [51]. - Spot Price: The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year). The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1520 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 200 yuan/ton year - on - year) [54]. 4. Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to shrink, and the spread between iron ore 5 - 9 contracts slightly widened [56].