——信用债月度观察（2026.2）：3月扰动因素较多，建议以防御策略为主-20260303

Group 1 - The overall credit bond market showed a strong rebound in February, with credit spreads generally narrowing due to a favorable liquidity environment and institutional demand for coupon assets [1][10][9] - Insurance institutions continued to play a leading role in credit bond allocation, maintaining net purchases across various maturities, particularly focusing on short-term bonds [1][17] - Funds showed significant net buying activity for bonds with maturities below 5 years, especially for high liquidity products with maturities of 0-1 year, while being cautious towards longer-term bonds [1][17] Group 2 - The outlook for the bond market in March suggests a cautious approach towards credit bonds due to potential volatility, with a recommendation to focus on short-term credit bonds for defensive positioning [2] - The opening of amortized cost bond funds in March is expected to bring strong demand for credit bonds, particularly for shorter maturities, which may lead to further compression of spreads [2][4] - The historical trend indicates that the bond market typically performs well in the 30 trading days following the National People's Congress, providing a favorable window for bond allocation [2] Group 3 - The issuance of credit bonds in February totaled 620.27 billion, a decrease of 47.76% month-on-month, with a total repayment amount of 479.14 billion, resulting in a net financing of 141.13 billion [25] - The total outstanding balance of credit bonds reached 31.89 trillion by the end of February, indicating a significant market size [25] - The issuance of local government bonds in February was 278.75 billion, reflecting a decrease of 37.03% month-on-month, with net financing of 34.69 billion [26]