Soochow Securities·2026-03-03 08:41Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a monthly decline of 2.32% in February 2026, with a total trading volume of approximately $53.456 billion[10] - As of February 27, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 index's PE-TTM was 33.88, positioned at the 77.16% historical percentile since 2011, down from 89% on January 30, 2026, indicating a high valuation relative to historical standards[15] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index was 42.60 as of February 27, 2026, a decrease from 75.97 on January 30, 2026, suggesting a potential adjustment phase ahead[18] Macro and Policy Analysis - In February 2026, macroeconomic data presented a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index rebounding to 52.6, delaying interest rate cut expectations, while inflation concerns persisted due to a core PCE increase to 3.0%[21][28] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, fluctuated between negotiation and military tension, impacting market risk sentiment[31] - Policy dynamics showed a tug-of-war between Trump's calls for significant interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on inflation risks, leading to increased market volatility[33] Industry Trends - The technology sector faced a cycle of panic, skepticism, and recovery in February 2026, with initial fears over AI's impact on SaaS leading to significant sell-offs, followed by a recovery narrative emphasizing collaboration over replacement[12][14] - Key earnings reports from major tech firms like Nvidia and Google indicated substantial capital expenditure increases, yet market reactions were mixed due to concerns over sustainability[12][14] Future Outlook - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to experience volatility in March 2026, influenced by macroeconomic data releases, FOMC meetings, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding oil prices and inflation assessments[21][31] - Upcoming events, including the FOMC meeting and earnings reports from major tech companies, will be critical in shaping market sentiment and expectations for interest rate adjustments[21][31]