海外宏观周报：地缘冲突风险上升-20260303

Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - As of February 27, non-US stock markets performed strongly while US stocks declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.44% and the Nasdaq down 0.95%[6][8] - The US PPI for January exceeded expectations at 2.8% year-on-year, raising concerns about persistent inflation[4][6] - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 were 212,000, slightly above the previous week's 208,000[4][6] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Trade Policies - The US implemented a 10% global tariff under "Section 122" on February 24, with potential increases to 15% pending[4][6] - Following the death of Iranian leader Khamenei on February 28, tensions escalated, with Iran threatening retaliation against US and Israeli military bases[4][6] - The EU postponed a vote on the US-EU trade agreement due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, which could disrupt existing trade balances[9][6] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Movements - The Swiss Franc appreciated by 0.87% against the USD, reflecting its safe-haven status amid geopolitical tensions[16] - The Chinese Yuan strengthened, reaching a high of 6.8760 against the USD, before a subsequent adjustment following a policy change by the central bank[16] - Commodity prices rose, with Brent crude oil increasing by 1.0% to $72.5 per barrel and gold prices rising by 3.3% to $5222.3 per ounce[14][6]