3月债市或仍陷“纠结期”

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, it is difficult for the bond market to follow the historical trend, and the bond market in March may still be in a "tangled period" [7][10]. - The "strong expectation" of investors will not weaken but strengthen, and it is uncertain whether there will be a resonance between the allocation and trading disks in March, which restricts the further decline of interest rates [7][12]. - The 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate around 1.8%, with limited trading space. It is recommended to focus on more certain strategies, such as the carry - trade strategy and 3 - 4 - year bonds with strong convexity [7][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Since 2026, the bond market has first fallen and then risen. After the Spring Festival, it adjusted again and fluctuated narrowly. The 10 - year treasury bond fluctuated around 1.8%. It is difficult for the bond market to follow the historical seasonal pattern this March [10]. - The "strong expectation" of investors has shifted from economic stimulus policies to national governance ability and economic transformation. With the intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts, this "strong expectation" will be further strengthened [12]. - Bank enthusiasm for subscribing to bond funds has declined. Even though bank deposit growth was better than expected at the beginning of 2026, the participation of funds in the bond market is not high, and it is uncertain whether there will be a resonance between the allocation and trading disks in March [12]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Release of February PMI Data - This week, China will release the February manufacturing PMI, February RatingDog manufacturing PMI, etc. The US will release the February unemployment rate, February ADP employment figures, non - farm payrolls, etc [16][17]. 2.2 Expected Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to reach 551.5 billion yuan, at a high level compared to the same period. This includes 159 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 272.5 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 120 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds [19][20]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.1 Last Week's Reverse Repurchase - Last week, reverse repurchase reached 1.64 trillion yuan. After the Spring Festival, funds faced tax - payment and end - of - month pressures. The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase maintained a high - level issuance of 1.64 trillion yuan. Considering the large - scale maturity of 14 - day reverse repurchases, the net reverse - repurchase withdrawal was 611.4 billion yuan. The central bank renewed MLF on the 25th, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. The overall net withdrawal from open - market operations was about 461.4 billion yuan [23][24]. - Last week, capital interest rates mostly increased. The repurchase trading volume first rose and then fell, with an average of 7.8 trillion yuan. The overnight proportion averaged 74.4%. At the end of the week, the overnight and 7 - day DR rates changed by 0.7bp and 18.2bp respectively compared to the previous week, reaching 1.32% and 1.50%. The overnight and 7 - day R rates changed by 2.8bp and 18.5bp respectively, reaching 1.36% and 1.53% [24][25]. - The issuance volume of certificates of deposit was low, and prices mostly fluctuated. From February 23rd to March 1st, the issuance scale was 454.4 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 666.8 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 212.4 billion yuan. The long - term proportion increased to 45%. The secondary yields of certificates of deposit declined [30]. 3.2 Post - Festival Bond Market Pressure - After the Spring Festival, the bond market was under pressure. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond had a rapid decline before the Spring Festival, breaking through the 1.8% key point. With the emergence of capital pressure and the improvement of the stock - market sentiment, the bond market adjusted, and the 10 - year treasury bond active bond rose above 1.8%. On Friday, the bond - market sentiment improved, and it returned to around 1.8%. The 10 - year treasury and CDB active bonds changed by 2.2bp and 3.3bp respectively compared to the previous week, reaching 1.80% and 1.95%. Most yields of interest - rate bonds with various maturities increased [42]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, the operating rates gradually recovered after the Spring Festival. The blast - furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, PTA operating rate, and asphalt operating rate all increased. The average daily crude - steel output in mid - February still had a large year - on - year decline of - 8.4% [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales increased significantly. In the week of February 8th, the year - on - year changes in passenger - car wholesale and retail sales were 46% and 54% respectively. In the week of February 22nd, the land - transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the commercial - housing sales area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities both decreased significantly compared to the same period last Spring Festival. The SCFI and CCFI composite indexes changed by 6.5% and - 4% respectively [49]. - On the price side, crude - oil prices increased, copper and aluminum prices rose, coal prices were divided, the building - materials composite price index was flat, the cement index changed by - 0.1%, the glass index changed by 2%, the rebar output decreased, the inventory accumulation accelerated, and the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 5.9%, 0.0%, and - 3.5% respectively [50].