瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated and trended stronger. The central bank has completed the handling of suggestions and proposals from the "Two Sessions" in 2025, and is promoting the high - level opening - up of the financial sector in an orderly manner. The weekly output of rebar decreased this period, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 36.19%. Terminal demand has recovered, but the apparent demand is still at a relatively low level, and inventory continues to increase. With the "Two Sessions" approaching, some steel mills' blast furnaces have production - cut plans, and geopolitical tensions continue to push up oil prices, which support commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are stable. It is recommended for short - term trading with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,074.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - RB main contract position: 1,881,888 lots, down 21,925 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net position: - 33,296 lots, up 1,229 lots [2] - RB5 - 10 contract spread: - 31 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 22,828 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,450.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,120.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis: 166.00 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 60.8% PB iron ore fines: 755.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan [2] - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 17,096.31 million tons, up 153.98 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 62.59 million tons, up 7.21 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 675.06 million tons, down 13.52 million tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 219.46 million tons, up 45.24 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 80.24%, up 0.09% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.48%, up 1.05% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar output: 165.10 million tons, down 5.28 million tons [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar capacity utilization rate: 36.19%, down 1.16% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar inventory: 232.84 million tons, up 11.77 million tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 567.76 million tons, up 72.79 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 11.46%, down 10.42% [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] - China's rebar monthly output: 1,375 million tons, up 19 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 1,078.00 million tons, up 130.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 3.80%, down 1.20% [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 17.20%, down 1.30% [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: - 2.20%, down 1.10% [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 659,890 million square meters, down 3,824 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 58,770 million square meters, down 5,313 million square meters [2] - Commodity housing unsold area: 40,236.00 million square meters, down 875.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held this afternoon (March 3). The conference will open at 3 pm on March 4 and close on the morning of March 11, with a duration of 7 days [2] - As of February 28, 16 cities have introduced 21 property market relaxation policies. Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan", which reduces the entry threshold for non - Shanghai - registered homebuyers, expands the home - buying eligibility of the resident - permit holders, and moderately relaxes the purchase restrictions within the outer ring road. The Shanghai new policy provides a reference sample for the whole country [2]