瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal, the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs, and the current off - season of aquaculture demand. Despite the short - term strength due to the rise of US soybeans, there is pressure on long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by international oil prices and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Although there is long - term supply pressure, it is expected to be strong in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9464 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2310 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 697.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5839 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is 54 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 59 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 272,868 hands, up 4058 hands; rapeseed meal is 888,198 hands, down 21,060 hands [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 9191 hands, up 7327 hands; rapeseed meal is - 213,146 hands, up 12,462 hands [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 625 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 1000 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,250 yuan/ton, average rapeseed oil price is 10,356.25 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed (import) import cost price is 5252.04 yuan/ton, up 394.94 yuan [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 786 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis is 200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - Substitute spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8770 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference is 1480 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference is 1250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 570 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Oil - meal ratio: 4.04, up 0.05 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity: 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is - 78 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 7.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons; weekly import rapeseed startup rate is 3.2%, up 3.2 percentage points [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal: 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 1 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 0.65 million tons, up 0.05 million tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 26.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory: 9.29 million tons, down 0.06 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 0.8 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory: 29.8 million tons, up 2.3 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量: - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量: 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; edible vegetable oil production: 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2] - Social consumer goods retail sales - catering revenue: 573.8 billion yuan, down 3.19 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal options: At - the - money call option implied volatility is 20.07%, up 0.91 percentage points; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 19.92%, up 0.77 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 14.54%, down 0.25 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 14.63%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - Rapeseed oil options: At - the - money call option implied volatility is 18.19%, up 1.69 percentage points; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 18.17%, up 1.67 percentage points; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.12%, up 0.93 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility is 18.02%, up 0.4 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - On March 2, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to the rise in energy prices driven by the Middle East situation. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 10.70 Canadian dollars to 698.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - The US Department of Agriculture expects the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [2] - The Canadian Department of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. The ending inventory is 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [2] - The US Department of Agriculture's outlook forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in 2025/26 will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in 2026/27 [2]