Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-03 10:03Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory has accumulated slightly compared to before the Spring Festival. Although the unloading speed of foreign vessels during the period was average, the restricted提货 during the holiday also affected consumption. The MTO device load in the Yangtze - River Delta region is not high currently, and there is an expectation of recovery in the near future, and the port will enter the destocking stage. However, the terminal demand is difficult to recover quickly, and the overall rigid demand is weak. There are no plans for device changes in domestic MTO enterprises in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the restart time of two MTO devices in East China. The inventory pressure of inland enterprises was partially transferred through pre - sale before the Spring Festival, but the downstream digestion was slow, and the post - festival procurement demand is still weak. Attention should also be paid to the destocking after the spring inspection and the post - festival demand recovery. Affected by the Middle East situation, there is an expected reduction in methanol production and exports from Iran. The short - term futures price may be strong, but it is not advisable to blindly chase the rise. Be cautious of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price and pay attention to risk control [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,557 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 192 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 99 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 101 yuan/ton. - The position of the main methanol contract is 942,657 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 162 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 96,089 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 15,734 lots. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,931 lots, with no week - on - week change [3]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 135 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton. - The spread between East China and Northwest is 400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 85 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 51 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 280 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 300 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11 euros/ton; the spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 45 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 18 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 1.0442 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 402,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons. - The methanol import profit is - 32.41 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 535,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.8%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.73 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.65 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 3.33%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.06 percentage points. - The acetic acid operating rate is 84.11%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 67.22%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 percentage points. - The olefin operating rate is 84.08%, with no week - on - week change. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 1,248 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 351 yuan/ton [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 41.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 12.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 32.81%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.16 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 37.05%, with a week - on - week increase of 13.67 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 37.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 13.7 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of February 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 535,300 tons, an increase of 195,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 57.32%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 34.69%. - As of February 25, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4467 million tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased slightly by 500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,000 tons. The methanol port inventory has accumulated slightly compared to before the Spring Festival. Although the unloading speed of foreign vessels during the period was average, the restricted提货 during the holiday also affected consumption. - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. Recently, the operation of domestic MTO enterprise devices has been stable, and there has been no significant change in the operating rate. The domestic methanol production has increased as the production capacity loss caused by recent maintenance and production reduction is less than the output of the restored production capacity. In terms of supply and demand, domestic gas - based MTO devices have gradually resumed and reached a high load before the Spring Festival, resulting in an increase in the overall market supply. Both ports and inland areas have seen inventory accumulation last week [3].