瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the tense situation between the US and Iran is expected to continue, and safe - haven funds may support the prices of gold and silver. Gold prices may challenge historical highs again, but there may be a callback if the conflict intensity is lower than expected. In the long - term, the structural logic of deepening geopolitical rifts and weakening US dollar credit remains unchanged, and gold's appeal as a safe - haven asset persists. It is recommended to buy on dips and control risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1182.000 yuan/gram, down 15.2; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 21645 yuan/kg, down 2786.00. The main contract position of Shanghai gold was 139,770.00 hands, down 14823.00; that of Shanghai silver was 6,074.00 hands, down 1112.00. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold was 392,779.00, up 72849.00; that of Shanghai silver was 598,151.00, up 72660.00. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 105060 kg, unchanged; that of Shanghai silver was 307,484 kg, down 1952 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1182.00, down 17.45; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 22,687.00, down 803.00. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 0.00, down 2.23; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,042.00, up 1983.00 [2] Supply and Demand - The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 0.00 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,902.24 tons, down 90.16. The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC was 159177.00 contracts, down 738.00; that of silver was 22,260.00 contracts, down 1743.00. The total supply of gold was 1302.80 tons per quarter, down 0.19; the total supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons per year, up 482.00. The total demand for gold was 1345.32 tons per quarter, up 79.57; the total demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons per year, down 491.00 [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.55, up 0.91; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.76, up 0.04. The VIX volatility index was 21.44, up 1.58; the CBOE gold volatility index was 34.83, up 1.60. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.30, down 0.02; the gold - silver ratio was 56.16, down 1.88 [2] Industry News - The US continues military operations in Iran, and the operation may last 4 - 5 weeks. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimates that European natural gas prices may rise 130% and oil prices may rise $18 per barrel. The ISM manufacturing activity index is 52.4, in the expansion range. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 6.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93.6% [2] Key Points to Watch - On 03 - 03 at 18:00, the year - on - year growth rate of Eurozone CPI; on 03 - 04 at 21:15, the US ADP private employment report; on 03 - 05 at 20:30, the US January trade balance data [2]