瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the domestic PVC maintenance capacity increases, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly from a high level. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises fully resume work, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually rise to the annual high. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated, but the situation of supply exceeding demand is expected to continue, and the high - level inventory is difficult to reduce. The cost support of the calcium carbide method is weak, and the cost of the ethylene method has a strengthening trend but the impact is relatively limited. The upward space of V2605 in the short term is expected to be limited, and attention should be paid to the support around 4760 and the pressure around 4980 technically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4939 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 71; the trading volume is 2274341 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 279227; the open interest is 1149647 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 58135. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1117193 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 36795; the short position is 1218510 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 68824; the net long position is - 101317 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 32029 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4930 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4654.81 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24.44. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4768.75 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 16.88. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 700 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 730 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 268 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 86 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2700 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.67; in Northwest China, it is 2378 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, with no change. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 492 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 528 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 220 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 224 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 82.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01%; the operating rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 81.88%, with no change; the operating rate of PVC ethylene method is 82.54%, with no change. The total social inventory of PVC is 61.56 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06; the total social inventory in the East China region is 56.2 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the total social inventory in the South China region is 5.36 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 5313.26; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 3824.09; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2871.41 [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.65%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.84; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.64%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.84 [3] 3.7 Industry News - From February 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.08%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. From February 21st to 27th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 17.11% week - on - week to 17.11%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 13.6% week - on - week to 13.6%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 11.3% week - on - week to 11.3%. As of February 26th, the PVC social inventory was 135.30 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%. From February 20th to 26th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide method decreased to 4991 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method increased to 4984 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 439 yuan/ton, and the loss was alleviated; the profit of the ethylene method was 11 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed [3]