原油月报：关注美伊关系演变，油价延续高波动格局-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks are the core trading logic in the current market, and the development of US - Iran relations will determine the future trend of oil prices. If the two sides maintain a negotiation stalemate, the oil price will lack a clear direction and the market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. If positive signals are released or an agreement is reached, the geopolitical risk premium will face downward pressure. Conversely, if the negotiation breaks down or the conflict escalates, the tense sentiment will push up the oil price again. Meanwhile, fundamental factors are also crucial. OPEC+ is expected to restart production increase at the March production meeting, and the current market generally expects a moderate increase, which will offset the premium brought by geopolitical risks to some extent. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities brought by the deviation between the actual production increase plan and market expectations [49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, geopolitics was the main factor affecting oil prices. The fluctuation of US - Iran relations drove the oil price to fluctuate strongly. At the beginning of the month, US President Trump sent positive signals and indirect negotiations were held between the US and Iran, but no substantial progress was made. The unclear geopolitical situation led to a lack of directional drive in the market, showing a wide - range fluctuation. Later, Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, and market news said that he was considering a "limited - scale" military strike, which raised the geopolitical risk premium of oil prices again [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - US - Iran Relations: Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran did not achieve substantial results. The meeting between the US and Israel did not reach any decision. Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran. The third - round indirect negotiation between the US and Iran ended, and a new round of negotiation is expected to start. The US - Iran relationship is the key factor determining the oil price trend. Different situations will lead to different market trends [10] - Russia - Ukraine Situation: Since February, the US, Russia, and Ukraine have held multiple rounds of meetings, but there are still large differences on core issues, and the meetings have not achieved substantial progress, having limited impact on oil prices. The new - round Geneva tripartite talks ended with different evaluations from all parties. On February 25, all parties made intensive statements to pave the way for a new round of contact. On February 26, the US held bilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia respectively. The large differences between Russia and Ukraine make it difficult to achieve substantial progress in the short term [11] - OPEC+ Situation: OPEC+ is expected to restart production increase in March, with an expected daily production increase of 137,000 barrels in April. OPEC+ production decreased in January, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's production. The demand side maintains the growth expectation. There may be a small supply surplus in the second quarter. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are expected to reach a nearly three - year high in February [14] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side - OPEC production decreased in January, mainly due to the impact of port attacks on Kazakhstan's oil exports. With the restart of the production increase plan and the recovery of port handling capacity, the supply side will face increasing pressure [15] - US crude oil production increased slightly in February and remained at a high level. Although affected by extreme weather, production recovered effectively after the weather improved. It is expected to remain at a high level [18] - The number of US oil rigs decreased slightly and remained at a low level within the year. The current oil price is still below the shale oil profit range, and producers have changed their strategies, so the number of rigs is expected to remain low [21] - Demand Side - In January, the US manufacturing PMI rebounded and was above the boom - bust line. The Chicago PMI and new order data also rebounded significantly, indicating an effective recovery of the manufacturing industry [23] - The US refinery operating rate decreased seasonally. It is expected to increase seasonally in the second quarter, which will boost crude oil consumption [27] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI decreased and fell below the boom - bust line due to the approaching Spring Festival. Small and medium - sized enterprises face greater pressure [34] - China's refinery operating rate shows a differentiated pattern. The operating rate of state - owned refineries is in the seasonal recovery stage, and the operating rate of independent refineries is expected to remain stable. Overall, domestic crude oil consumption is expected to pick up slightly [38] - Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory increased significantly in the week ending February 20, and the refinery operating rate is in the seasonal decline stage. Coupled with high crude oil production, the inventory faces seasonal accumulation pressure [43] - Cushing's crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the gasoline inventory reached an inflection point. The oil inventory is expected to end the accumulation trend and gradually enter the de - stocking stage [47]