固定收益2026年春季投资策略：通胀回归，走出低利率时代

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflation is returning, and if GDP targets are lowered, the policy combination may involve reducing supply and increasing prices. This is part of a supply-side structural reform 2.0, which aims to enhance corporate profits, increase household income, and boost consumer demand [3][8][12] - The report anticipates a shift from a low-interest-rate era in the bond market, with yields expected to rise in line with fundamental improvements. The current potential inflation rate is around 2%, but due to a decline in prices from 2022 to 2025, it may temporarily remain below this level. After prices rebound, 2% could serve as a lower limit for 10-year government bond yields [4][46][49] Group 2 - The report outlines that the real estate market is expected to see a turning point, lagging behind the stock market's bullish phase. Factors influencing this include increased self-funding leading to improved demand and investment, as well as rental yields surpassing deposit rates [24][32] - It is noted that the bond market is likely to lag behind the stock market, with the turning point in bond yields typically following that of stock yields. Historical patterns show that stock market optimism often precedes bond market recovery [36][38]