玉米产销区飘红需求不买账

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the post - Spring Festival period of 2026, the upstream raw material prices of the domestic corn industry chain are supported, the mid - stream processing enterprises face cost pressure and profit losses, and the downstream demand recovers slowly with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The current corn market has a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the corn market will remain in a high - level shock, and the future trend depends on the matching degree between the grass - roots grain sales rhythm and terminal demand [5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply and Price in Production Areas - After the Spring Festival, the corn production areas did not return to normal immediately. The slow pace of farmers' grain sales led to a temporary shortage of market grain sources, supporting the general rise in spot prices. Different production areas had different price increases and market sentiments due to differences in supply - demand fundamentals [6] - In the Northeast production area, the corn price was stable with a slight increase, showing a strong operation trend. After the festival, the deep - processing purchase price was higher than before the festival. The listed price of wet corn converted to 14% dry basis in Heilongjiang and Jilin deep - processing enterprises was 2113 - 2210 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. Deep - processing enterprises started purchasing successively from the fourth day of the first lunar month and had restocking needs after the Spring Festival consumption, which supported the corn price in the production area [6] - In the North China production area, the corn price increased significantly, and the market entered a wait - and - see state after a rapid rise. The listed price of corn in Shandong was 2220 - 2420 yuan/ton, up 10 - 40 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival, with a higher increase than in the Northeast. Most grass - roots grain collection points started purchasing from the eighth day of the first lunar month, but farmers' grain sales had not fully recovered, resulting in a shortage of grain sources. Deep - processing enterprises had restocking needs and were active in purchasing. The number of corn trucks queuing at the gates of Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the past week exceeded 2200, a 2% increase week - on - week, indicating the recovery of logistics and an increase in arrivals, while enterprise demand was also recovering simultaneously [6] Demand and Price in Sales Areas - As of February 27, 2026, the mainstream quotation of bulk - carrier corn at Guangdong Shekou Port was 2440 - 2460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the corn price in the sales area followed the price increase in the main production areas such as the Northeast and North China, but this increase was not driven by strong local demand in the sales area, so the increase was relatively moderate [7] - With the gradual recovery of port arrivals, the supply was relatively stable. The price increase was mainly due to cost - push rather than a shortage of port supply itself. Downstream feed enterprises' procurement activities were light. Due to the pre - festival inventory of feed enterprises, there was a demand window period after the festival. Feed enterprises preferred to consume existing inventory and had a low acceptance of high - priced new grain. At the same time, the downstream aquaculture demand was weak after the festival, leading to a cautious procurement attitude [7] - The sales area market showed the characteristic of high prices but few transactions, with limited actual transactions. Currently, the firm price in the production area supports the price in the sales area, but due to the lack of demand pull, the price increase will be significantly smaller than that in the production area, mainly showing a follow - up increase. As the pre - festival inventory of feed enterprises is gradually depleted, the rigid restocking demand will be released, but the time and intensity of the release will depend on the profitability of the downstream aquaculture industry [7]